Which Derby Really Produces the Best Older Horses?

In this week’s edition, we use the TopRate database to analyse which Derby has produced the best older horses over the past decade, examining future Group 1 success, ratings strength, and long-term performance trends, with one race standing out more clearly than expected.

We also review the Top Five Rated Winners from the weekend, highlight the hidden merit behind Concord Connie’s latest win, and revisit the importance of focusing on your edge in Racing & Betting IQ.

I put the TopRate database to work and analysed the subsequent careers of every runner from the:

• ATC Derby
• Victoria Derby
• Queensland Derby
• South Australian Derby

From the 2015/16 season onwards, I examined measures including:

➡ Future wins
➡ Group race participation & success
➡ Group 1 performance
➡ Rating strength as older horses

Some results were expected. One was genuinely surprising.

Here’s a snippet of the results:

The full article breaks down:

• Which Derby produced the most future G1 horses
• Which cohort produced the strongest ratings
• Which race has been the best guide to future high-class older horses
• The standout individual horses behind the numbers

Read the full article on the Inside Running website

🔥 Rothfire 100.0
Returned to the Group 1 winner’s circle at start number 43, and six years after his 104 rating Group 1 JJ Atkins win as a 2YO, scoring an emotional victory in the Doomben 10,000 for trainer Rob Heathcote and connections. His 100 rating is the same figure he produced when narrowly beaten into second by Sunshine In Paris in this race last year, with those now standing as his two best performances across the past two years.

There will always be a sense of what might have been with Rothfire after producing elite ratings of 103 and 104 as a 2YO, before running a world-class 107.5 to win The Run To The Rose in the spring of 2020. That performance saw him start $1.50 favourite in the Group 1 Golden Rose at his next start, where he looked to have the race at his mercy when still 2L clear with 200m to go, only to go amiss.

This year’s Doomben 10,000 rated around one length below the 102 winner average since the race switched to 1200m in 2017. Giga Kick remains the standout winner in that period, with a rating of 105.2 in 2023.

🛕 Western Empire 98.5
Another older horse (8YO) continuing to show plenty of enthusiasm for racing, he ran a 98.5 rating to win the Group 3 Belmont Sprint first-up off a 154-day spell at start number 36. That performance sits at the upper end of his good form range. Across the past three years, only his 100 rating win in the 2024 G3 Gold Rush (1400m) and his 99.8 rating second placing in the 2025 Group 1 Railway Handicap (1600m) have been better.

💎 Tulleries 98.3
Overcame barrier 15 and topweight of 59.5kg to score a strong win in the Group 3 Dark Jewel Classic at Scone, producing a clear new career peak in the process. Her 98.3 rating improved on her previous best of 95.7 from just two runs earlier when winning the Group 3 Newcastle Stakes, also over 1400m. Prior to this preparation, her peak rating had been 92.8, highlighting that she has undoubtedly returned a much better mare this campaign for Peter Snowden.

🎯 Middle Earth 98.0
Returned to form for Ciaron Maher with a solid win in the Group 3 Chairman's Handicap over 2000m at Doomben, aided by a fast pace set by Just Fine. He came from 6.8L off the lead at the 800m mark in a race where the first six horses across the line were all four lengths or more from the lead at that point. The 98.0 rating is his second-best performance in 12 Australian starts since March 2025. His best remains the 99.1 rating he produced when third, beaten 4.3L, in the 2025 Melbourne Cup. The suitability of the fast pace on Saturday makes me cautious about being too bullish on the run from a form perspective, especially given that he is a consistent backmarker. However, his 102.3 peak overseas winning at Group 3 level over 2414m shows there is another layer of talent there beyond what we have seen from him so far in Australia.

🧨 Midnight Dynamite 97.5
James McDonald had him quickly into the lead from barrier one, where he established a comfortable rhythm travelling just below standard to the 800m before increasing the speed slightly from there. He was never seriously challenged, kicking clear between the 300m and 200m marks before going on to win easily by 2.1L and produce a clear new career peak of 97.5. That continued a strong upward ratings trajectory for the Bjorn Baker rising five-year-old gelding. His previous peak of 93.5 came at his prior start, which itself had improved on his earlier best of 92.5. Between the end of last preparation and his two runs this campaign, he has now produced three successive peak ratings, highlighting that he is a later-maturing horse only now finding the best form of his career.

💡 Key Takeaways
I’m not getting carried away with Middle Earth’s win, given the fast pace was somewhat flattering and he typically races in a low-percentage get-back pattern.

Tuileries rated well enough to measure up in similar mares Group races during the Brisbane carnival.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

Concord Connie well and truly confirmed her promise on Saturday at Flemington.

Visually, the win may not have looked as dominant as her previous Flemington 1400m win by six lengths, but the TopRate data suggests the merit was every bit as strong.

📊 Race Shape Context

Last start:
• 4.5L off the lead at the 800m
• Lead speed 🟢+1.6L above TopRate standard

Saturday:
• 4.7L off the lead at the 800m
• Lead speed 🔴-5.6L below standard

That’s a vastly different scenario.

⏱️ Her Sectional Pattern

From the 800m, Concord Connie improved her sectional ratings relative to standard with every 200m split (see the TopRate screenshot below).

Her final 200m was her best split relative to standard.

⚖️ The Rating

Her 96.7 WFA Performance Rating was 1.6 lengths below the 100 figure she ran last start. But given the much less suitable setup, there’s a strong case she’s gone just as well. This may not have looked as visually explosive, but the merit was absolutely there. She heads to the spring looking every bit a realistic Group class horse.

💡 Form Analysis Pointer

I love seeing this type of building pattern in a horse’s sectionals where their final 200m is their best relative to standard, especially when combined with a good WFA Performance Rating.

It’s often a sign of talent, upside and a horse that can improve again when they find a more suitable race setup.

As a winner, Concord Connie’s merit is more obvious, but over the years, I’ve had many good betting results from beaten horses showing this same pattern before finding the right setup next start.

Missing winners can be frustrating, especially when you feel like you “should” have found them. But it’s unrealistic to think you can solve every race better than the betting market. Long-term success comes from understanding where your edge is strongest and consistently exploiting those situations.

💡 How to apply it:

Spend more time identifying the races, horses, and situations where your approach gives you an edge, and less time worrying about the winners it misses.

Every betting method has strengths and weaknesses depending on the type of analysis done and the factors it focuses on. Some punters rely heavily on form and ratings, others on times and sectionals, trial analysis, video replays, market behaviour, or a combination of many different inputs.

The key is understanding what type of opportunities your approach is best suited to finding, then structuring your work process to identify those situations as efficiently and consistently as possible.

Trying to be the smartest on every race usually leads to over-analysis, forced bets, and drifting away from the areas where your real edge exists.

The best long-term punters aren’t trying to be the smartest on every race. They usually have a specific approach that consistently identifies certain types of winners where they hold an edge, and they apply it with discipline while accepting there will always be winners others find that they don’t.

➡️ Champion jockey James McDonald will ride Birdman in the Group 1 Doomben Cup as Chris Waller chases his 200th career Group 1 win and 20th of the 2025–26 season.

➡️ Zakouma secured a ballot-free start in the 2026 Melbourne Cup with his Listed Andrew Ramsden (2800m) win at Flemington. Bookmakers have him at $26 in current markets on the equal 7th line of betting, but his 93.7 rating from that win suggests he should be significantly longer.

➡️ Craig Williams has been booked for Splash Back in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap at Eagle Farm on June 13, where her last-start 99 rating win and light weight give her a competitive chance.

➡️ Autumn Glow’s spring campaign remains undecided, with the Group 1 $5 million King Charles III Stakes (1600m) one target, but a tilt at The Everest (on the same day) is also being considered. A decision on her spring program could be delayed until after she returns in the Winx Stakes (1400m).

➡️ Tuileries will aim towards the G2 Dane Ripper Stakes and G1 Tattersall’s Tiara during the Brisbane carnival following her Dark Jewel Classic win at Scone, with the quality of that performance suggesting both races are realistic targets.

➡️ Lady Of Camelot has been retired after a stingray-related beach incident ruled her out of the Doomben 10,000 and Royal Ascot, bringing an early end to the career of the 2024 Golden Slipper winner.

➡️ Trainer Henry Dwyer has travelled to the UK to oversee the next phase of Asfoora’s campaign ahead of a third shot at Royal Ascot. She's already won two Group 1 races in England and another in France since heading overseas in 2024.

➡ Doomben | Group 2 ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS THE ROSES 2000M 🔎
➡ Doomben | Group 3 BRC SPRINT 1350M 🔎
➡ Doomben | Group 3 MAGIC MILLIONS Fillies and Mares Plate 1600M 🔎
➡ Doomben | Listed BILL CARTER STAKES 1350M 🔎
➡ Doomben | Listed CHIEF DE BEERS - LISTED 1110M 🔎
➡ Doomben | Group 1 DOOMBEN CUP 2000M 🔎

🔎 = Full analysis available via the Betsmart service

*Answers at the bottom