Which Derby Really Produces the Best Older Horses?

That question came up in a conversation I had with a racing friend last week, so rather than relying on perception or reputation, I decided to put the TopRate database to work and examine the subsequent careers of every horse to contest the ATC Derby, Victoria Derby, Queensland Derby and South Australian Derby from the 2015/2016 season onwards.

The focus was specifically on what those horses achieved as older horses, aged four and above.

That matters because the Derby calendar naturally overlaps. The Victoria Derby is held in the spring, allowing runners to progress through the ATC, South Australian and Queensland Derbies during the following autumn and winter. ATC Derby runners may continue on to the South Australian or Queensland Derby, while South Australian Derby runners can also contest the Queensland Derby, the final major Derby of the season. Including three-year-old performances in the subsequent record would distort the comparison between races.

When punters and analysts talk about the strength of a Derby as a future form reference, they are usually talking about what those horses become later in their careers. That is the real test.

This analysis captures subsequent performances in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Singapore. It naturally excludes runners from the current 2025/26 season because they have not yet turned 4 years old.

That leaves 10 editions of the ATC, Victoria and South Australian Derby with runners that have since raced as older horses, and nine editions of the Queensland Derby, which was not run in 2020.

Future Starts & Winning Outcomes

The first measure was straightforward: how much racing did these horses have left in them, and how often did they win again?

The Victoria Derby has produced the lowest median future starts and the highest percentage of horses that never won another race.

Future Group Class Race Performance

The next step was to examine the rate at which these horses returned to future Group class races and their success in those races.

This is where the ATC Derby clearly separated itself.

Almost 59% of runners returned for at least one future Group race start, while more than 28% won a future Group race. Collectively, the cohort produced 83 future Group wins.

The Queensland Derby held up reasonably well for future Group participation, but its conversion into Group winners was notably lower than the ATC Derby.

The Victoria Derby and South Australian Derby both trailed comfortably across most measures, although 16.8% of Victoria Derby runners winning a future Group class race is second-best.

Future Group 1 Performance

Group 1 performance provides the clearest guide to which Derby has produced the strongest future elite horses.

Again, the ATC Derby dominated every major category.

More than 37% of runners returned for at least one future Group 1 start, producing 321 Group 1 starts as older horses. The race produced 10 individual Group 1 winners and 18 future Group 1 wins overall.

What these figures do not include is the ATC Derby also providing future Hong Kong Derby winners Furore and Cap Ferrat. While the Hong Kong Derby is not recognised as an international Group 1 race, it is effectively a domestic Group 1 in quality and arguably stronger than some recognised Group 1 races in Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. That further strengthens the ATC Derby’s profile as a future form reference.

The Queensland Derby ranked second across most Group 1 measures, although several of its elite-level wins came in New Zealand and Singapore.

The most surprising result was the Victoria Derby. For a race with such historical prestige, its recent output of top-level older horses has been thin.

Future Group 1 Horses

Looking at the individual horses behind the numbers provides more context.

ATC Derby

Queensland Derby

South Australian Derby

Victoria Derby

Aside from Aramayo’s Singapore success, the Victoria Derby has produced only Pericles as a future Group 1 winner from this study period.

By contrast, the ATC Derby cohort contains a much deeper spread of elite performers across Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong.

Highest Rated Horses

The next measure ranked horses based on the average of their best two subsequent WFA Performance Ratings as older horses.

The ATC Derby again dominated the rankings, supplying the top three horses overall and seven of the top 10.

Cohort Rating Strength

The final measure looked at the average of each horse’s best two subsequent WFA Performance Ratings, then calculated the cohort median and the rating threshold separating the top 25% of horses from each Derby.

Naturally, the ATC Derby again came out on top.

Interestingly, the Victoria Derby rated more competitively on this measure than its broader results would suggest. That indicates it has still produced capable horses, but not the same depth of Group-class performers as shown above.

Overall Verdict

From the 2015/2016 season onwards, the ATC Derby has clearly been the strongest Australian three-year-old Derby as a guide to future high-class older horses.

It leads across virtually every meaningful measure, including future Group race participation and success, future Group 1 performance and the quality of the highest-rated horses produced.

The biggest surprise was the Victoria Derby. Despite its prestige and history, the results over the past ten years show it has produced fewer top-level older horses than many would expect.