When Racing’s Best Rise to the Occasion

The first chapter of Flemington delivered elite performances — class, speed, and staying power on full display.

We’re halfway through the Flemington carnival, and the cream has already risen to the top. In this edition, we recap the key takeaways from the Melbourne Cup🏆, review the top-rated winners from Derby Day, where class again shone through, and put Victoria Derby winner Observer through the Hype Check process.

With Oaks Day and Champions Day still to come, there’s plenty left to look forward to as the carnival reaches its grand finale!

—Daniel O’Sullivan & The Inside Running Team

We’ll share our full ratings analysis of the Melbourne Cup in next week’s post-Flemington Carnival edition, but for now, here are some key takeaways from a historic win.

💪 Half Yours delivered a dominant staying performance, winning by 2.75 lengths — the equal third-largest margin in the past 30 years alongside Americain (2010). Only Protectionist (2014) and Verry Elleegant (2021) have won by more (4 lengths).

🏇 Ridden by Jamie Melham, she became just the second female jockey to win the Cup, and the first to complete the Caulfield Cup–Melbourne Cup double.

🎯 Bred by Grant and Joanne Dwyer at Brackley Park Stud in Avenel, 110 km north of Melbourne, Half Yours was also the only Australian-bred horse in the field, and he dominated. He is the only stakes and Group 1 winner by his sire St Jean, an imported son of Teofilo, who stood for just $3,000 + GST.

📚 Melbourne Cup success runs in the family. Teofilo, sire of St Jean, has produced three Melbourne Cup winners from only 11 runners: Cross Counter (2018), Twilight Payment (2020), and Without A Fight (2023) — and now his son St Jean has added another Cup winner to the line.

☄ The Caulfield Cup–Melbourne Cup double is a rare feat, and Half Yours became only the 13th horse in history to achieve it.

⚡ He showed superior acceleration and was still extending his margin through the line - a dominant performance that cements his place in modern Cup history.

🚀 Jimmysstar 106.8 - He was perfectly set up with a hot early pace🔥 and a position a couple of lengths further forward than he has in many races, but this performance showed what he's capable of in the right scenario — an elite sprinting performance.

💥 Tentyris 106.3 - Exploded to a new peak in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, up from 101.7. He was ideally suited by both the race shape and his positioning, and while his visually explosive finish is somewhat tempered by a last 200m rating that ranked only 43rd on the day, the key point is how comprehensively he outperformed his rivals in terms of overall time. He’s clearly a potential star of the future.

💎 Pride Of Jenni 105.5 - An incredible effort by horse and the Maher training operation to produce this type of performance, which is the second best of her career, behind her 107.2 All Star Mile win. She set a solid early pace and then scorched the turf between the 800m and 600m, taking every rival out of their comfort zone and blunting their ability to chase. Despite that sustained pressure, she was only two lengths below standard in the final 200m, showing remarkable resilience after such an energy-demanding mid-race surge.

🌟 Autumn Glow 105 - There may have been higher-rated performances on the day, but this mare continues to build the profile of a future champion. Unbeaten in eight starts, she already owns a bank of Group 1-level ratings and still looks to have untapped upside. The combination of talent, consistency, and progression she’s showing is rare. She’s tracking towards something special.

📈 Panova 99.3 - Continued Chris Waller's strong record in the Carbine Club Stakes, elevating to a significant new peak to win this race in impressive style at her 5th start. It’s become a familiar pattern for the stable — Fangirl ran 101 to win this race in 2021 (also at her fifth start), and Aeliana ran 100 to win last year (fifth start again). If that history is any guide, Panova is on the same path towards becoming a very good horse in the future.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

The best horse won the Victoria Derby, no question. But the social chatter that Observer would’ve given the Cox Plate a shake and is already shaping as a potential top-level WFA performer of the future deserves a hype check.

Let’s look at what the data says 👇

📊 WFA Performance Ratings

He rated 98.5 in his Victoria Derby win, better than Manzoice (97.8, 2022) and Johnny Get Angry (94.5, 2020), but 1.7L below the Derby winner median (101.1) since 2015.

Benchmark winners: Tarzino (2015) and Hitotsu (2021) — both 103.5.

Riff Rocket (2023) ran 101, Goldrush Guru (2024) 99.

⏱️ Time & Sectionals

His overall time rated -8.3L vs the TopRate standard — ranked 74th of 104 runners at the meeting.

In fairness on the time front, he led and went –13.3L to the 800m — a slow early tempo that suited in terms of winning but killed any hope of a fast overall time. However, there was no corresponding big offset in his sectionals. The pace lifted from the 800m, yet he only closed +5.0L for his last 800m (22nd best of the day) and +3.4L for his last 600m (38th best) — solid, not explosive.

🚀 Comparison: Riff Rocket (2023)

📏 Race Context

Sometimes the clock doesn’t tell the full story, so it’s worth looking at the race itself — the margin spread and what we know about those horses from past form. Just 1.6L separated the first four, with outsiders at $31, $61 and $101 behind him. That’s the second-tightest finish in 20 years, behind the 1.5L spread when Johnny Get Angry won in 2020.

By comparison, the median margin to 4th for the Victoria Derby is 3.3L. The race lacked meaningful strength on the clock — both in overall time and sectionals — and produced a more compressed finish than normal.

Observer may not be a genuine staying type and likely won the Derby on class alone. But as covered in the last edition, there was nothing in his figures — time or sectionals — from The Vase win a week earlier to support the hype, even allowing for him being eased down late.

👨‍⚖️ Hype-Check Verdict: ⚠️ Way too premature.
Any young feature-race winner in the spring is a potential top-class horse of the future, and Observer is in the right hands (Maher). But the data doesn’t yet back the hype. His Derby win was professional, not near-elite. He still has a way to go before entering genuine WFA type conversations.

The Ciaron Maher-trained daughter of Written Tycoon produced an impressive 96 📊 WFA Performance Rating, leading all the way to win by 4.7 lengths over 1200m at last Friday’s Cranbourne night meeting.

There was serious substance on the clock. Her verified time of 69.96 seconds makes her just the fourth winner from 221 races over 1200m at Cranbourne since January 2019 to break 70 seconds — and she did it on a night when the track wasn’t especially fast. The only others to achieve that are Garza Blanca, Nadal, and Jigsaw.

This wasn’t a case of burning early and hanging on. She led at a controlled tempo, finished +3.6 lengths faster than the TopRate standard over the final 600m, and was still +0.4 lengths faster over the final 200m.

All going well, she’s on her way to better races and shapes as a potential lower-level stakes-class mare.

*Answers at the bottom

Thursday, 6th November

➡ Flemington | Listed Chester Manifold Stakes 1600M
➡ Flemington | Group 1 Crown Oaks 2500M
➡ Flemington | Group 3 Crown Red Roses Stakes 1100M
➡ Flemington | Listed Century Stakes 1000M

Saturday, 8th November

➡ Hawkesbury | Listed LADIES DAY CUP 1500M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Listed FIVE DIAMONDS 1800M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 3 GOLDEN GIFT 1100M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 2 HOT DANISH STAKES 1400M
➡ Flemington | Listed FISHER Stakes 1200M
➡ Flemington | Restricted Listed Inglis Banner 1000M
➡ Flemington | Group 1 Lexus Champions Mile 1600M
➡ Flemington | Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600M
➡ Flemington | Group 1 TAB Champions Stakes 2000M
➡ Flemington | Group 2 TAB Matriarch Stakes 2000M
➡ Flemington | Group 1 VRC Champions Sprint 1200M
➡ Ascot | Listed FAIRETHA STAKES 1400M
➡ Ascot | Group 2 LEE STEERE STAKES 1400M
➡ Ascot | Listed LUCKYGRAY STAKES 1800M