The Doncaster Has a Clear Benchmark

With the Doncaster Mile field now in focus, we take an early look at how the race shapes on the ratings, highlighting a clear standout and a couple of runners capable of running well at big odds. We also review the standout winners from the weekend, grade performances in our Autumn Report Card, explore the importance of realistic expectations as a punter, and test your knowledge of the Doncaster in our Brain Teaser section.

🌟 Aeliana - 106.5: Showed class and serious stamina to overhaul Dubai Honour and win a high rating Group 1 Tancred Stakes. Her 106.5 rating was a new peak, improving on her previous two runs of 105.3 and 104.7.
It was only her second attempt at 2400m, and she has now produced a new peak at the trip both times, having gone from 99.5 to 103.3 to win the Group 1 ATC Derby at the same stage last year.
Her range and versatility are proving exceptional. She ran 105.3 over 1600m behind Autumn Glow in a race that required sharp acceleration and sectional speed off a slow tempo, and has now produced 106.5 over a strongly run 2400m that required stamina and sustained speed.
The clearest sign of her staying strength is that she not only relished a genuine 2400m in fast overall time, but still finished well above standard late, running +3.8 lengths over her final 200m. That confirms her as a genuine elite stayer.
Comparisons with Verry Elleegant are now warranted. Verry Elleegant ran 104 to win the G1 Australian Oaks as a 3YO in 2019, then returned the following autumn to run 104.5 when second in the G1 Ranvet before producing 107 to win the G1 Tancred seven days later. Aeliana followed a similar path, running 103.3 to win the G1 ATC Derby last year, then returning to win the Ranvet with 104.7 and now the Tancred with 106.5. Her figure is the second-highest winning rating in this race over the past decade, behind only Verry Elleegant.

🎯 Light Infantry Man - 101: Won a brutally fast-run Group 1 Australian Cup, where Pride Of Jenni set a blistering tempo, running +24.5 lengths above standard to the 800m. The race completely broke down late, with the entire field out on their feet over the final 400m, but Light Infantry Man was able to edge past Pride Of Jenni right on the line.
A 101 rating is his equal second-best performance in Australia behind the 105 he produced to win this race last year in dominant fashion by two lengths, also off a similarly extreme tempo set by Pride Of Jenni (who was beaten 15.7L on that occasion).
While Saturday’s race was run in well above standard overall time, it was not especially strong given the setup from that early pace. As a guide, they ran only six lengths faster than the BM84 won by Zakouma, despite going out around 26 lengths faster to the 800m, and coming home 20 lengths slower over the final 600m. Light Infantry Man ran home -11.4 lengths below standard for the final 400m and -6.5 for the final 200m, reflecting how hard the early speed took its toll.
There was a clear element of Pride Of Jenni going too fast for her own good, which very likely reduced her overall time compared to what she could have produced with a tempo more typical of her early speed, rather than at her extreme top end. Her ability to remain competitive and not drop right out was remarkable. That does not apply to the same extent to those settling off the speed, with numerous examples of high-quality horses sitting off this type of extreme tempo and producing stronger overall figures. That is a key factor constraining the race to a 101 rating level.
What the race does reinforce is that Light Infantry Man thrives in strongly run races. He has now won five races in Australia, and all have been run at least five lengths faster than standard early. In the 10 fastest early-pace races he has contested in Australia, he has won five, with a median rating of 99. In the 10 slowest-run races he has contested, he has zero wins, with just one placing and a median rating of 96.

🌧️ Wootton Verni - 99: Improved on his previous 97.5 peak from a 2000m win at Randwick on Soft 7 last preparation, to run a 99 rating winning the Neville Sellwood Stakes over 2000m on Soft 7 at Rosehill. Both races were run at a solid tempo, well above standard to the 800m, which provided an almost identical setup to that prior peak and makes the repeat performance no surprise. His profile shows a preference for rain-affected ground, with his five best career ratings, including overseas, all coming in those conditions.

🙌 Corniche - 97.5: Won the Listed Bob Hoysted Hcp over 1000m at Flemington on Soft 7 for Shaw Mathrick, matching his career peak from two seasons ago when a 3YO with James Cummings, winning the G3 Gold Coast Guineas on Heavy 10. He clearly handles wet ground well, but his good form is not limited to those conditions. He has ratings of 96.3 on Soft 5 and 96.2 on Good 4.

💎 Idle Flyer - 97.5: Won the G2 Emancipation Stakes at Rosehill, her second-best performance behind the 100.5 she produced winning the G3 Angst Stakes over 1600m last preparation. That peak came fourth up, whereas she was only second up on Saturday over 1500m, suggesting there is still scope to improve. She looks a good chance to challenge that peak again this preparation.

⚡️ Welwal - 97.5: Won the G3 Doncaster Prelude with a 97.5 rating, matching his peak from the G3 Kevin Heffernan Stakes over 1400m on Heavy ground at Caulfield in 2024. He settled nearly seven lengths off the lead at the 800m, but that was no disadvantage in a race run at a very fast early tempo set by Sandpaper, +11.5 lengths above standard, which suited horses in his position. His record points to a clear preference for wet ground, with his three Australian wins coming on Soft 6 to Heavy 8. That said, he has also produced ratings of 96.6, 96 and 95.5 when placed in Group class races on Good 4, not too far below his 97.5 peak.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

Each week in The Autumn Report Card, we assess and grade the performances of key runners as they build through their autumn campaigns. The grades go beyond the raw result, weighing each run against expectations for this stage of preparation, the suitability of the race setup and how the performance shapes their prospects to reach or improve on their past peak performances.

The final field of 16 runners has been confirmed for the 2026 Group 1 Doncaster Mile. While a race of this depth and quality warrants detailed analysis, which we will explore in the coming days, an early assessment based on each runner’s 📊 WFA Performance Rating profile provides a strong starting point.

Sheza Alibi rates as a clear standout, as the market suggests, while little separates a big group of second-tier chances. While settling position, race shape and luck in running will all play a key role, the graphic below offers an initial overview, including a couple of runners capable of running well at big odds.

Racing & Betting IQ is a weekly series of practical tips, insights, and mental models drawn from experience. If you take your betting seriously, these principles can help sharpen how you think about and approach the game.

*Answers at the bottom

➡ Ascot | Group 3 DRUMMOND GOLF - W.A. OAKS 2400M
➡ Ascot | Listed SCHWEPPES - MELVISTA STAKES 2200M

➡ Ascot | Listed OLD COMRADE STAKES 1600M

➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 ADRIAN KNOX STAKES 2000M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 AUSTRALIAN DERBY 2400M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 CARBINE CLUB STAKES 1600M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 2 CHAIRMAN'S QUALITY 2600M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 DONCASTER MILE 1600M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 INGLIS SIRES' 1400M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 KINDERGARTEN STAKES 1100M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 P J BELL STAKES 1200M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 T J SMITH STAKES1200M
➡ Sportsbet Oakbank | Listed Harcourts Hills Railway Stakes 1100M
➡ Caulfield | Group 3 Sportsbet Victoria Handicap 1400M
➡ Caulfield | Group 3 Tobin Brothers Celebrating Lives Easter Cup 2000M
➡ Ascot | Group 3 GIMCRACK STAKES 1100M
➡ Ascot | Listed PERTH STAKES 1100M
➡ Ascot | Group 3 ROMA CUP 1100M