The challenge came. She answered

Last year, it was brilliance. This year, resilience — as Via Sistina claimed her second Cox Plate. In this edition, we review the highest-rated winners from Saturday’s Moonee Valley and Randwick meetings, break down the sectionals from the 2040m Vase to see whether Observer has the Derby sewn up, and spotlight a promising Chris Waller trained 3YO sprinter who’s only had two starts.

It’s all part of the build-up to racing’s greatest week, the Flemington Melbourne Cup Carnival, kicking off with Derby Day this Saturday.

— Daniel O’Sullivan & The Inside Running Team

🏆 Via Sistina 104.5 – below her freakish 116 in this race last year and her pair of 107.5 peaks since, but this win was all about class and grit. When Buckaroo loomed to challenge, she dug in and fought him off, showing the resilience that defines genuine champions. We’ve seen her brilliance before, in this race last year, and often storming home over the top of rivals to win comfortably, but this time she had to win a different way, through toughness. It’s fitting that she now joins the record books as a dual Cox Plate winner.

💪 Lindermann 103.5 - was outstanding again, leading all the way and dominating the Craven Plate. While he controlled the race, he certainly didn’t steal it, setting a genuine tempo and then ramping it up from the 800m to 400m, giving every chaser their chance if they were good enough. None could seriously threaten. His last four ratings: 103.5, 102.5, 104.5, 102.5 show both his quality and terrific consistency. He wouldn’t be out of place in the Champions Stakes on the final day of the Flemington carnival.

🎯 Transatlantic 100.5 - matched his Group 1 Toorak Handicap rating from last start. He led at a fast speed in the Toorak, but this time enjoyed a far softer run outside the lead, with no significant lift in tempo until the final 400m. That left him plenty in reserve, and when asked, he kicked strongly to put the race away. A good horse given that easy a run to the 400m was always going to be near impossible to catch, and those chasing from off the pace never got close.

💎 Stefi Magnetica 99.7 - already a Group 1 Stradbroke and Doncaster winner, she was the class runner in the G2 Invitation and showed it with a 99.7 rating win. That’s below her 102.8 peak and 101.5 best from the autumn, but still strong enough to give weight and beat a handy group of mares. Settling well back off just an even tempo to the 600m, she sprinted home powerfully, and while her margin was narrow, the win was still decisive. She was only second-up on Saturday, and in the autumn peaked when 3rd and 4th up over 1600m.

📈 Best Mode 98.5 – He’s a different horse since the blinkers went back on, backing up his dominant 955m win at Moonee Valley (98 rating) with another strong win over 1000m. He showed sustained speed throughout, controlling the race from the front and never looking like he was going to be run down.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

Observer’s Vase win at Moonee Valley was more dominant than his half-length margin shows, eased down in the final 75m by Mark Zahra to run a 95 📊 WFA Performance Rating. Allowing around two lengths (0.33 secs) for easing brings him to about a 98 rating, clearly the benchmark for the G1 Victoria Derby.

I’m reluctant to suggest that easing down cost him any more than that. For one, it would make his final 200m faster than his two previous splits, something that is very rare for a leader around Moonee Valley. Experience has also taught me that we often overestimate how much more a horse might have produced if ridden out, overlooking that most horses, especially leaders, are already decelerating late from natural fatigue before the jockey eases them down.

That aside, digging deeper into the sectionals shows the race wasn’t all one-way traffic.

The tempo to the 800m was only moderate, with the middle splits particularly slow: 13.21s (1200–1000m) and 13.07s (1000–800m). From there, things got interesting. The table below compares how Observer and Providence closed off the race, with Observer’s final 200m adjusted two lengths faster than his recorded 12.26s to account for easing late.

While attention focused on Observer easing down, Providence was finishing with real purpose. His raw time of 11.47 secs earned him the fastest final 200m rating of the meeting, +4.2 lengths faster than the TopRate standard, and +1.7L quicker than the next best on the day (Von Hauke.)

What’s also notable in his sectionals is the momentum loss around the tight Valley bend from the 400m to 200m, where he lost a little ground on Observer while travelling 4–5 wide. That suggests he wasn’t entirely comfortable around the turn, and it may have masked his full potential. The long Flemington straight in the Derby, where he can balance up 450m from home instead of under 200m, should suit him far better.

Observer is a deserving favourite - his early tactical speed and acceleration are key assets. But the bigger Flemington track, extra distance, and at least some potential that there may be a little more speed in the middle stages will present new challenges. With favourites winning only five of the past 20 Victoria Derbies, it’s fair to say this year’s race is far from a one-horse contest.

What are they?
WFA Performance Ratings are our proprietary measure of a horse’s performance, produced since 2016. They combine the quality of the race, beaten margin, and weight carried (adjusted to our weight-for-age scale). The higher the number, the better the performance. They sit on a custom points scale, where two points per length is a practical guide to understanding the gap between horses, though the exact value varies slightly with distance.

How to read them

👍 93.5 | Average Saturday BM78 winner Sydney / Melbourne
🎯 100+ | Group class performance
⭐ 105+ | The best horses in the country
🌏 108+ | Elite world-class level
🏆 110+ | Champion Territory (Winx peaked at 115.5, 115 & 113.5)

Normalising the ratings to weight-for-age allows horses to be compared on equal terms, regardless of age, sex, distance, or time of year.

In races at weight-for-age level, the ratings compare horses directly. In handicap races, past ratings are adjusted to the weight each horse will carry in the upcoming event, allowing performances to be compared ‘at the weights’ rather than at WFA.

Why they’re different
Our ratings aren’t computer-generated. Every meeting and race is manually reviewed using a consistent and rigorous process, factoring in numerous variables, including:

📊 Recent & peak ratings - What we know about the level of talent horses in the race have shown before.
⏱ The True Speed Merit of each race - Overall race times viewed in isolation are an unreliable measure of race strength. Average horses can run fast when the pace is strong, while top-class runners will record slow times off a crawl. Our speed model considers early pace, finishing speed, and overall time to determine a race’s True Speed Merit.
↔ Margin spread - The distance between horses as they finish. A wide margin spread compared to normal can indicate a strong race relative to the class, whereas a bunched finish might suggest a weaker race.
⚖ Weights carried - yes, they do make a difference.
💰 Market Expectations - How the betting market expected each horse to perform, relative to their past ratings.

We rate every run in Australia and New Zealand, plus most overseas performances for imports.


🔗 WFA Performance Ratings are a key feature of the TopRate platform - powering sharper insights into every race.

Skyglider produced a strong 97.6 📊 WFA Performance Rating to win the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes over 1200m at Randwick, an excellent effort at just his second career start and first-up from a spell. The race was run at a genuine tempo, and while perfectly positioned, he showed good sustained speed over the trip.
His winning rating stacks up impressively against recent winners Amazing Eagle (94.5), Mumbai Muse (94) and Kote (95.5), and matches Mazu’s 97.5 from 2021, which he achieved at his sixth start, not second. It’s the sort of early career performance that signals strong Group-class potential for the Chris Waller stable.

Check out a replay of the concluding stages HERE

*Answers at the bottom

Wednesday, 29th October

➡ Bendigo | Group 3 Bendigo Cup 2400M

Saturday, 1st November

➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 ROSEHILL GOLD CUP 2000M
➡ Flemington | Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes 1600M
➡ Flemington | Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200M
➡ Flemington | Group 3 G.H. Mumm Stakes 1200M
➡ Flemington | Group 2 Wakeful Stakes 2000M
➡ Flemington | Group 3 Ichiban Sprint 1100M
➡ Flemington | Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes 1600M
➡ Flemington | Group 2 The Damien Oliver 1400M
➡ Flemington | Group 3 The Vanity 1400M
➡ Flemington | Group 1 Victoria Derby 2500M
➡ Ascot | Group 3 ASIAN BEAU STAKES 1400M
➡ Ascot | Group 3 PRINCE OF WALES STAKES 1000m