Sheza Alibi Stamps Star Quality

Sheza Alibi produced the performance of the weekend, stamping herself as a rising star with a dominant Randwick Guineas victory. We analyse that run alongside the standout ratings from Saturday, take a deeper look at what the race shape tells us about Well Written’s NZB Kiwi win, and unpack why the debate about Tentyris and 57kg misses the real point about handicap racing.

⭐️ Sheza Alibi – 105.3: She confirmed herself as a potential future star of Australian racing with a highly impressive win in the Randwick Guineas. Her 105.3 rating sits almost three lengths above the historical median winning rating of 100 and more than a length above the previous highest rated winner in the past decade, The Autumn Sun (103). The race was run at a fast early speed, which suited her, as she settled back off the pace. From there she showed a serious engine, running very fast overall time and still finishing her last 200m just above standard. The performance gives her the highest rating by a three-year-old filly this season, surpassing the 104 previously run by Tempted. No race looks beyond her after this performance, and stepping up to 2000m appears unlikely to pose any issue. It will be interesting to see whether she runs again this autumn and, if so, which option the stable chooses.

🎯 Caballus – 102.2: He had the pattern of the day in his favour but still produced a very good performance to win the Group 1 Newmarket. He was well rated in front, but certainly did not get away with jogging and then sprinting over the final 600m. His 102.2 rating sits just below the 103 I had him running when bolting in by three lengths in the G3 George Moore Stakes at Doomben with 60kg. It's an improvement of just over a length on his previous run, when he was second to Joliestar. His last three starts are the best of his career, showing Bjorn Baker has him in excellent order as a rising six-year-old. History says a rating in the 100 to 101.5 range puts you right in the mix for The Quokka, which is reportedly his next target.

💎 Joliestar – 102: She regressed from her 104.5 rating first-up but still won the G1 Canterbury Stakes comfortably with a 102 rating. The race was run moderately to the 800m, just above standard to the 600m, and then developed into a sprint home, so she was ideally positioned, handy to the lead when the tempo lifted. I don't think that type of race shape is necessarily ideal for her to show her very best, but she was still well suited by how the race unfolded, so the performance needs to be taken largely at face value. It was a good win without being overly impressive. She is now two from two this preparation, but the ratings suggest she is performing at a similar level to previous campaigns rather than progressing to new highs.

🙌 Tom Kitten – 101.5: Made it back-to-back All-Star Mile wins with a 101.5 rating, just ahead of his narrow 101 win in the race last year, but a little short of the 102.5 he ran first-up. That might seem surprising given this was a stronger race on paper, but while the overall time was fast, it was set up by a hot early pace. History shows that top-level races run off that kind of tempo typically run even faster overall times, often two to three lengths quicker, with Pride Of Jenni at her best one of the reference points. That is an immediate reason not to anchor too heavily on the overall time figure, ignoring the context that helps set it up. Pride Of Jenni did not lead by a huge margin but was still rolling along at a strong cruising speed, not quite at her most extreme but certainly within the range of many of her fast-run races. That gave horses off the pace every opportunity to make ground, which they did, producing very compressed margins at the finish. Just 1.6 lengths covered the first six across the line, including Sabaj and Steparty, who are much more moderately performed than the three that finished ahead of them. Margins compressed to that extent are another signal to be cautious about overrating the race. Even with those caveats, there was still merit in the win, given it was a high-pressure contest. Tom Kitten has clearly returned in terrific form, and this was the first time in his career that he has put back-to-back wins together.

📈 Chayan – 99.5: She was a very impressive winner of the G2 Reisling Stakes, her 99.5 rating clearly superior to the 94 recorded by Paradoxium winning the Todman Stakes for colts and geldings. Both were visually impressive, but there were clear differences on the clock. Chayan ran 5.7 lengths faster overall time. While a slow mid-race section limited the overall time potential of the Todman, which needs to be accounted for when assessing the races, her last 200m was also faster than Paradoxium’s.

Her 99.5 is the equal second-highest winning rating from this race in the past decade, just behind Estijaab’s 100 in 2018 before she went on to win the Golden Slipper, and equal with Tenley, who started $4.80 second favourite in the 2019 Golden Slipper but failed on a bog track. The next highest is Tempted, who won this race last year with a 98.7 before running an unlucky third in the Golden Slipper as the $4.80 favourite. Frolic ran 97.5 to win this race in 2017 before finishing second in the Golden Slipper. There is a good record of the higher-rated winners of this race performing well in the Golden Slipper, and Chayan clearly fits that profile. She should be the favourite right now, and even more so if James McDonald takes the ride.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

Each week in The Autumn Report Card, we assess and grade the performances of key runners as they build through their autumn campaigns. The grades go beyond the raw result, weighing each run against expectations for this stage of preparation, the suitability of the race setup and how the performance shapes their prospects to reach or improve on their past peak performances.

The winning margin was narrow and, at first glance, seemed unconvincing. But the circumstances of the NZB Kiwi tell a far more compelling story about Well Written’s performance than the short-head margin suggests.

The unbeaten three-year-old filly added the $4 million feature at Ellerslie to an already outstanding record, stretching her winning sequence to six races this season. That run includes victories in the Group 1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas, the Karaka Millions 3YO and now the richest three-year-old race in the Southern Hemisphere.

On paper, the finish looked close. In reality, the race shape made her task far more demanding than it first appeared and adds plenty of extra merit.

⏱ A Brutal Early Pace

The race was run at a very fast early speed, which set it up ideally for horses settling well off the pace.

Well Written did the opposite.

She settled handy to that fast tempo, sitting just behind the lead and in third position approaching the home turn.

The impact of that pace becomes clear when looking at how the rest of the field finished. The four horses positioned closest to Well Written in the run finished between ninth and fourteenth, beaten between 8.8 and 21.8 lengths.

By contrast, the other runners who filled the top five placings behind Well Written were 12th, 9th, 13th and 11th approaching the turn.

That context is critical when assessing what unfolded in the straight.

🎯 The Race-Winning Move

Well Written showed her class with a strong turn of foot between the 350m and the 100m mark to establish a winning break.

It was that move which effectively won her the race, and it is a sign of her serious talent that she was able to produce that acceleration after travelling so quickly in the early stages.

She did begin to shorten stride late, allowing Belle Cheval to close rapidly over the final 100m, but given the work she had already done in the race, that was entirely understandable.

📊 The WFA Performance Ratings Perspective

Well Written ran a 100 WFA Performance Rating in her win, a strong figure in its own right, although below the 103.3 peak rating she produced at her previous start.

The key point is that, given the demanding and unsuitable race shape, there should be no loss of reputation attached to this performance.

If anything, it reinforces the depth of her ability.

Belle Cheval deserves credit for her effort. The progressive filly elevated to a new peak rating of 98.6, producing a strong late surge to almost overhaul the winner.

However, that performance came from a position ideally suited to the fast tempo, which is important context when comparing the two.

She appears a filly who will also benefit from stepping beyond the 1500m of Saturday’s race and will continue to appreciate genuinely run contests.

⭐ She’s Still a Star on the Rise

For Well Written, her win result maintains an outstanding profile. She remains unbeaten in six starts this season, highlighted by multiple feature victories and now supported by a rating profile that places her in the upper echelon of her generation across Australia and New Zealand.

The margin at the finish may have been small, but a deeper dive into the race suggests the performance itself was anything but.

It will be exciting to see her come to Australia in the spring as a four-year-old mare.

Tentyris carried 57kg as a three-year-old in the Newmarket Handicap, and the circumstances of the race sparked plenty of debate, with some arguing the weight played no role at all in his defeat. But focusing on whether the weight beat him in isolation misses the real point about how handicaps influence a race.

In this Deeper Thinking article, we use the Newmarket as a case study to explore how handicap weights work, what their real impact can be, and the role it played in Tentyris’ race on Saturday. CLICK HERE, or the image above, to read the full article on the Inside Running site.

Over the next few months in Racing & Betting IQ, I’ll be sharing a series of tips, insights, and mental models drawn from my experience that have had a meaningful positive impact on my results. If you take your betting seriously, these principles can help sharpen how you think about and approach the game.

*Answers at the bottom

➡ Kembla Grange | Group 3 KEMBLA GRANGE CLASSIC 1600M

➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 2 AJAX STAKES 1500M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 1 COOLMORE CLASSIC 1500M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 3 MAGIC NIGHT STAKES 1200M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 3 MAURICE MCCARTEN STAKES 1100M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 3 PAGO PAGO STAKES 1200M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 2 PHAR LAP STAKES 1500M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 3 SKY HIGH STAKES 2000M
➡ Caulfield | Group 2 Sportsbet Peter Young Stakes 1800M
➡ Ascot | Listed J.C. ROBERTS STAKES 1800M
➡ Ascot | Listed NATASHA STAKES 2200M