Magic Millions Behind Us, Autumn Approaches

Magic Millions Day has been and gone, and while it features prominently in this week’s Top Five Rated Winners, the highest-rated performance did not come from the Gold Coast. With that carnival now behind us, attention begins to shift toward the better horses returning for their autumn campaigns, alongside the two-year-old races that sit on the path to the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper.

This edition reflects that transition. We take a closer look at the Magic Millions 2YO Classic to assess how the ratings stack up with future races in mind, revisit the career of Via Sistina following her retirement through our Brain Teasers, and highlight an emerging talent from the O’Shea and Charlton stable whose latest win points to a profile capable of measuring up at a higher level.

🎯 Future History ran to a 99 rating, making it three wins in a row and landing just shy of his 99.7 career peak. The win followed the same pattern as his previous two, controlling the race in front at a slow to moderate tempo to the 800m before gradually lifting from that point. The 99 figure should be read in context. The race shape was highly favourable, and he has proven far more effective when able to lead and control races. From 29 Australian starts, he has led nine times for five wins and two placings. When not leading, he has just one win from 20 starts, that coming when he sat outside the lead at a very slow pace, with 14 of those runs unplaced.

📈 Snitzanova stepped beyond 1800m for the first time in her career and settled a long way back off a brutal early pace, before sustaining a strong finishing effort to win in very fast overall time, a time set up by that early pressure. Her 98 rating is a major new peak, up from 92.6 at her previous start over 1800m. She’s only a 4YO mare having her 11th career run and clearly relished both the added distance and the high-pressure race shape. That performance provides a strong foundation to look toward Group-class distance races going forward.

⚡ Axius elevated to a monster new peak of 97 to take out the Magic Millions Snippets, a sharp improvement on his previous best of 92.5. That prior peak, along with slightly lower recent form, explains why he was sent out at $31, but there can be no denying the quality of the performance, given the fast overall time and the margin spread behind him. The key now is whether he can prove this is a repeatable level of form rather than a one-off spike.

💪 Hawker Hall showed good early speed to cross from a wide draw and lead at a solid tempo. He slipped away from the chasers on the turn and held a dominant 1.9 length margin through the line, still going as well as anything behind him. He was heavily backed, $10 into $6.50, to beat the favourite Roselyn’s Star, who finished runner-up, and justified that confidence. The performance saw him improve sharply from his previous best of 92 to a new peak of 97.

👌 Saint George made it back-to-back wins with a hard-fought victory over 2000m at Flemington, rating 96.5, just below his Australian peak of 98.5 when winning at Cranbourne the start prior. Those runs stand out clearly as his two best performances from 10 Australian starts, confirming he's a much better horse now in his second preparation with Maher.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

Ciaron Maher added another Magic Millions 2YO Classic to his record with Unit Five, giving the stable its third win in the race since 2020, following Away Game and Coolangatta. From a bloodstock perspective, the result also stood out. At $80,000, Unit Five was the cheapest yearling to win the race in at least a decade, with Houtzen in 2017 the next lowest at $105,000.

From a performance ratings standpoint, however, this year’s edition profiles as a below-average renewal.

Unit Five recorded a 📊 WFA Performance Rating of 94, making this the lowest-rated Magic Millions 2YO Classic in at least the past ten years. Last year’s winner O’ Ole ran to 94.7, while Shaquero’s 2021 win rated 95.5. Those three editions sit clearly beneath the historical standard for the race.

The primary factor driving these lower ratings is a softer True Speed Merit. Our speed framework looks beyond raw overall time, balancing the influence of early pace and the quality of the closing section to assess race strength more accurately. Lower-rated editions have lacked substance on the clock.

Magic Millions Day also provides a useful reference point for the two-year-olds through the Snippets race over the same 1200m, contested by older and more exposed horses. Given the immaturity of the juveniles and the fact that they are carrying around 11.5kg above our weight-for-age scale, there is almost always a meaningful gap between the two races. Storm Boy is the lone exception in the past decade, the only 2YO to run figures comparable to the older horses in the Snippets.

This year, the gap was wider than usual. The 2YO Classic was run almost nine lengths slower in overall time than the Snippets, won by Axius, with the final 600m also marginally slower. On our True Speed Merit scale, the difference between the two races was 17 points, compared to an average gap closer to 12. When that is considered alongside the exposed ratings of the contenders, there is little to support a stronger overall assessment of the race.

For context, the standout winners of the past decade have been Storm Boy, who rated 105, Sunlight at 101, Houtzen at 100.5, and Away Game at 98.5.

A low rating does not mean the form should be dismissed, but it does set a clear reference point. This was a below-standard edition of the race, and on what was produced here, the majority of these juveniles would need to take a meaningful step forward to measure up in stronger races on a path toward the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper. Improvement is possible, but it should not be assumed.

That caveat applies across the field, though the most plausible scope for improvement sits with the winner, Unit Five. Having just his second start, he lifted from a 91.5-rated debut win and showed good late strength on Saturday, running +1.7 lengths above standard over the final 200m. That closing profile, combined with his relative inexperience, suggests there is still a better-than-average chance of new peaks in his future.

One of the lingering questions for punters is how the race might have unfolded had Warwoven taken his place. Scratched on race morning, he entered the Classic unbeaten from two starts with ratings of 97.5 and 98.8, a profile that justified his odds-on status. While hypotheticals rarely settle anything conclusively, his absence remains a meaningful reference point when assessing the overall depth of this year’s race.

Cross Tasman ran to a 96 📊 WFA Performance Rating to win at Rosehill over 1500m, improving his peak for the third straight run this preparation and continuing a clear upward trajectory. He settled off a solid speed, peeled wide on the turn, and finished strongly to score by 3.3 lengths in fast overall time. The standout was the way he kept surging late, pulling away in dominant style. His final 200m rated +3.3 lengths faster than standard and was clearly the strongest part of his race, a pattern that has been evident in all three wins this preparation. That late strength, combined with the quick overall time, points to further improvement still to come. This was only Benchmark 78 grade, but the profile is of a horse capable of measuring up in Group company. He looks well suited stepping to 1600m and beyond, with extra distance likely to unlock another layer of progression.

Check out a replay of his win HERE

Now retired, Via Sistina leaves behind a record that places her among the very best of her era. Test your recall on the performances, milestones, and details that defined her remarkable career in Australia.

*Answers at the bottom

➡ Aquis Park Gold Coast | Listed GOLDMARKET 1100M
➡ Southside Pakenham | Group 2 Clamms Seafood Australia Stakes 1200M

➡ Royal Randwick | Listed CARRINGTON STAKES1400M
➡ Sunshine Coast | Listed SUNSHINE COAST CUP 1400M
➡ Morphettville | Listed Durbridge Stakes 1100M
➡ Caulfield | Listed John Dillon Stakes 1400M
➡ Caulfield | Group 3 Manfred Stakes 1200M
➡ Caulfield | Listed Blue Diamond Preview (C&G) 1000M
➡ Caulfield | Group 3 Blue Diamond Preview (F) 1000M
➡ Caulfield | Listed W.J. Adams Stakes 1000M
➡ Ascot | Listed SCENIC BLAST STAKES 1200M

➡ Hobart | Listed Elwick Stakes 1100M

Who sired Via Sistina?

✅ Fastnet Rock

What Group 1 race did Via Sistina win at her first Australian start?

✅ The Ranvet Stakes – over 2000m at Randwick in March 2024.

How many Group 1 races did Via Sistina win in Australia?

✅ 11 – plus one overseas before coming to Australia.

What was Via Sistina’s largest winning margin?

✅ Eight lengths – in the 2024 Group 1 WFA Cox Plate\

Other than James McDonald, which two jockeys partnered Via Sistina to Group 1 wins in Australia?

✅ Kerrin McEvoy in the 2024 Winx Stakes (1400m) and Damian Lane in the 2024 Turnbull Stakes (2000m).