Inside Running Launch Issue

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Inside Running is our new publication, delivering free racing data and insights designed to sharpen how you see the game.

Our goal is simple: to add genuine value to your understanding, knowledge, and analysis of horse racing - whether you’re a punter, passionate racing fan, industry professional, or all of the above.

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Quality insights into racing and form don’t have to be complex. Inside Running makes it simple, sharing valuable takeaways from our WFA Performance Ratings, Sectional Time Ratings, and other data powered by the TopRate platform. It’s clear, practical information you can actually use.

In the weeks ahead, Inside Running will evolve to bring you:

🔎 Feature race previews
📊 Weekly top performer ratings
⏱ Sectional insights & hidden merit runs
⚡ What the data says about the hype horses
🏇 Horses to follow
💡 Form and betting pointers to sharpen your game

This first edition looks back on Everest and Caulfield Cup Day, reviewing the standout performances and key takeaways from two of the spring’s biggest meetings.

Cheers,
Daniel O’Sullivan & The Inside Running Team

🌏 Ka Ying Rising 106.5 - Not at his absolute best (past peaks 110 × 2, 107 × 2), but he carried the weight of expectation to win The Everest comfortably. A steady mid-race section suited him perfectly thanks to a combination of his draw, tactical speed, and how the map played out. Those chasing from behind had a tougher task, but he still put the race away decisively. He came here with figures that said if he went close to those, none of the locals could match him, and that's how it played out.

💥 Ceolwulf - Reacted just as Joe Pride hoped with blinkers back on, running 103.3 to win the G1 King Charles, just below his 104 peak from the same race last year. When he’s in top form, he shows the traits of a horse that can run a strong 2000m, and this run gave that indication, adding options for his future targets.

⚡ Tentyris - Produced a high-quality 101.7 win at Caulfield to put himself firmly in G1 Coolmore calculations. His last 200m was outstanding in the context of also running good overall time. A more favourable setup, either settling closer or a stronger early tempo, can see him rate higher. The Flemington straight should provide the ideal scenario to settle closer.

🏆 Half Yours – Ran to a 101 rating (normalised to WFA) to win the G1 Caulfield Cup, or 106.2 at his weight of 52.5kg. That sits at the lower end of what’s typical, but there’s not much separating most winners over the past ten years between 106.2 and 108.3 at the weights. Durston was the outlier on the low side at 104, while Incentivise remains the clear benchmark with his dominant 112.3.

📈 Idle Flyer – Produced a breakout performance, smashing her previous best of 94.8 with a 100.5 rating to win impressively over 1600m at Randwick. She ran fast overall time and sustained strong sectionals throughout, adding real depth to the figure. On that effort, she looks set for more success at Group level.

💫 Linebacker - Improved slightly on his previous 100 peak with a dominant Silver Eagle win. There was some extra merit racing wide without cover, but being handy was a key advantage given the moderate early tempo. His sharp turn of foot to put the race away quickly stands out. He’s in the Golden Eagle mix, though that race will likely require around a 103 rating to win.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

We’ve crunched the numbers on the Caulfield Cup and adjusted each runner’s WFA Performance Rating to the weight they’ll carry in the Melbourne Cup. Here’s how they stack up.

There’s a lot more to the Melbourne Cup than who brings the highest-rated Caulfield Cup performance, but this is a useful starting point to hone in on the key chances. Just as important is identifying who can elevate to a new level over 3200m that is needed to win, regardless of where your lead-up form comes from. The 🏆 Cup remains racing’s greatest puzzle, and this year looks no different.

She bolted in a BM70 over 1440m on Coongy Day at Caulfield last Wednesday, running fast overall time and showing sustained strength through her sectionals to earn a 99📊 WFA Performance Rating. The quality of her late work suggests this 4YO daughter of The Autumn Sun will have no trouble stepping up in distance, which should suit her even better. That was only her first run back, and there’s clearly more to come. Group-class targets look well within reach for the Waterhouse & Bott team.

Check out the replay of her win HERE

The Peter Snowden trained 3YO by Deep Field turned heads at Warwick Farm on 15th October (R3) with a late surge to score on debut, sparking plenty of social-media hype. But a closer look at the data in TopRate tells a calmer story.

✅ Yes, the finish was strong.
His last 200m rated +4.4 lengths above the TopRate Performance Standard, the fastest of the meeting (by 0.1L).

❌ But he did very little work before that.
To the 800m he went -6.1L vs standard, then another -6.0L from the 800m to 400m. He lifted slightly (+0.6L from 400m to 200m) before producing that late burst. When you’ve conserved that much energy, a decent horse is entitled to show something late. His lack of a sharper turn of foot in the early part of the straight was noted on replay.

❌ The broader picture dulls the shine.
His final 600m rated only +1 above standard (14th best of the day) and his overall time was -7.3L vs standard (32nd of the day). For comparison, Golden Straand in Race 4 ran +8.1L faster overall at the same 1200m distance and was +1L quicker across the final 600m, despite finishing slower late.

📊 Resulting WFA Performance Rating: 84
He can improve off that as debut winners often do, but he still needs a sharp lift to reach genuine Saturday class.

🧑‍⚖ Hype Check Verdict: 👎 Over the top.
A race is far more than its final 200m. Before that eye-catching close, Nitro simply didn’t do enough to put substance in the overall performance. There’s clearly some potential there, but for now, the numbers say: not yet worth the hype.

A huge week of top class racing coming up, headlined by the WS Cox Plate at The Valley on Saturday.

Wednesday, 22nd October

➡ Ladbrokes Geelong | Group 3 Geelong Cup 2400M
➡ Ladbrokes Geelong | Listed 3YO Geelong Classic

Friday, 24th October

➡ The Valley | Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup 2500M

Saturday, 25th October

➡ Royal Randwick | Listed BRIAN CROWLEY STAKES 1200M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 2 CALLANDER-PRESNELL 1600M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 CRAVEN PLATE 1800M
➡ Royal Randwick | Listed FIVE DIAMONDS PRELUDE 1500M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 SPRING CHAMPION STAKES 2000M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 2 THE INVITATION 1400M
➡ The Valley | Group 2 Fillies Classic 1600M
➡ The Valley | Group 2 Crystal Mile 1600M
➡ The Valley | Group 2 McEwen Stakes 1200M
➡ The Valley | Group 2 Vase 2040M
➡ The Valley | Group 1 Cox Plate 2040M
➡ The Valley | Group 3 Tesio Stakes 2040M
➡ The Valley | Group 3 JRA Cup 2040M
➡ The Valley | Listed Crockett Stakes 1200M
➡ The Valley | Group 3 Red Anchor Stakes 1200M
➡ Ascot | Listed BELGRAVIA STAKES 1200M

Sunday, 26th October

➡ Sale | Listed Sale Cup 1600M
➡ Northam | Listed NORTHAM CUP 1600M