Early Signs of a Champion: Sheza Alibi’s Doncaster

This week’s edition is headlined by Sheza Alibi’s outstanding Doncaster performance, one of the most significant we’ve seen in recent years and a run that carries clear implications for what may come next.

We also break down the other standout winners from the weekend, update our Autumn Report Card, and examine the importance of settling position as a punting principle in Racing & Betting IQ. To round things out, you can test your knowledge of ATC Oaks winners, including a link to the champion mare Winx.

Sheza Alibi produced one of the most remarkable performances in recent years, winning the Group 1 Doncaster with a 📊 109 WFA Performance Rating, an elite, world-class figure. That rating is adjusted to weight-for-age and therefore fully accounts for her 49kg. It is the highest-rated performance by a three-year-old in Australia or New Zealand in at least the past decade.

She was 10.7 lengths off the lead at the 800m, still 5.8 lengths back at the 400m and near last, yet had the race won by the 200m. The acceleration she produced was exceptional.

That 109 rating improved on her 105.3 win in the Randwick Guineas, stamped by a 4-length faster overall time and much faster finishing speed.

She is clearly the highest-rated Doncaster winner of the past decade, both at the weights carried and on a WFA-adjusted basis. Prior to that, Winx ran 111.5 when winning the 2016 Doncaster as a 4YO, having already run 113 earlier that season in her first Cox Plate win. Sheza Alibi is still only a three-year-old filly and will reach that same stage of her career when she lines up as a four-year-old in the spring.

What made her win even more noteworthy, especially from a future perspective, was the combination of such a fast overall time and sustained finishing speed. She ran +12.9 lengths above standard overall and +4.4 for her final 200m. That speed profile is incredibly rare and says that 2000m will hold no concerns. There is every reason to think she can be just as effective, if not better at that trip.

With that in mind, a Cox Plate campaign would be a natural next step. However, recent stable comments suggest she is more likely to head towards the Golden Eagle in Sydney, where the one-off opportunity as a four-year-old for the additional $1m+ in prizemoney for first place is a strong incentive. She can naturally target the Cox Plate the following season.

Whatever path she takes, the quality of her performance on Saturday, the manner in which she produced it, and the depth of her rating profile behind it, combined with the fact that she is still only a three-year-old, all point in the same direction. She is already showing the attributes of a horse that, provided she remains sound, can develop into a genuine champion of the Australian turf.

🌏 Sheza Alibi - 109: As outlined above, an elite world-class performance with a profile that suggests she can develop into a genuine champion of the Australian turf.

💎 Joliestar - 103.7: Made it three straight wins this preparation, the last two at Group 1 level, taking her career tally to five. Her 103.7 sits within a length of her peaks at 105.2 and 105, and is clearly her best rating third-up or deeper into a campaign. It also stands as her top performance on a track worse than Good, improving on her previous best of 101.3 on a Soft 5.

🎯 Green Spaces - 100: Continued his upward progression, improving on his 97.7 rating when second in the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m with a 100 rating win in the G1 ATC Derby. James McDonald set a good rolling speed aboard Observer to the 1200m, easing through the mid-race to the 800m before building again, creating a decent staying test. Green Spaces relaxed well, travelled strongly into the race and took control by the 200m, pulling away for a dominant 3.2 length win. Despite the margin, his 100 rating sits 0.8 lengths below the 10-year winning average. It rates above recent winners like Major Beel (99 in 2023) and Jon Snow (99 in 2017), but comfortably below Aeliana’s 103.3 last year, which remains the benchmark of the past decade.

📈 Campione D'Italia - 97.5: Improved on his 96.2 Golden Slipper rating to win the G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes with a 97.5 performance. That sits above Vinrock’s 96.5 winning figure last year, but around a length below the 10-year average of 99.5. What's likable about him is that he still looks like a work in progress, both in his physical development and racing manners. The Chris Waller stable has a strong record of taking this type of 2YO and progressing them into higher-level 3YOs, and Campione D’Italia profiles as one that can follow that path.

👌 Profoundly - 96.5: Relished the step up to 2000m, winning the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes impressively with a 96.5 rating, a clear improvement on her previous peak of 90. She showed a strong turn of foot between the 400m and 200m and sustained that effort late, running +1.4 lengths above standard for the final 200m. She looks like a filly capable of handling the step up to 2400m in the Oaks this Saturday if she backs up and her rating makes her hard to beat. Her 96.5 sits slightly above the 96 run by After Summer when near dead-heating in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes, and above the 94.8 from Ohope Wins, who finished fourth. That same filly had run a comparable 96.5 when winning the G1 New Zealand Oaks prior to coming to Australia.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

Each week in The Autumn Report Card, we assess and grade the performances of key runners as they build through their autumn campaigns. The grades go beyond the raw result, weighing each run against expectations for this stage of preparation, the suitability of the race setup and how the performance shapes their prospects to reach or improve on their past peak performances.

Racing & Betting IQ is a weekly series of practical tips, insights, and mental models drawn from experience. If you take your betting seriously, these principles can help sharpen how you think about and approach the game.

*Answers at the bottom

➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 AUSTRALIAN OAKS 2400M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES 2000M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 QUEEN OF THE TURF STAKES 1600M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP 3200M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 2 ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT 1200M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 2 PERCY SYKES STAKES 1200M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 2 SAPPHIRE STAKES 1200M
➡ Royal Randwick | Listed FERNHILL MILE HANDICAP 1600M
➡ Royal Randwick | Listed SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC 1400M
➡ Morphettville | Group 3 Sportsbet Auraria Stakes 1800M
➡ Morphettville | Group 3 Sportsbet R N Irwin Stakes 1100M
➡ Morphettville | Listed Sportsbet City of Adelaide Handicap 1529M
➡ Morphettville | Listed Sportsbet Port Adelaide Guineas 1800M
➡ Morphettville | Listed Sportsbet Redelva Stakes 1100M
➡ Morphettville | Listed Sportsbet Without Fear Stakes 1050M
➡ Caulfield | Listed Anniversary Vase 1600M
➡ Caulfield | Listed Galilee Series Final 2400M
➡ Caulfield | Listed Redoute's Choice Stakes 1200M
➡ Ascot | Group 2 W.A.T.C. DERBY 2400M