Blue Diamond Clues From the Final Lead-Ups

The two-year-old picture is starting to take shape as the final lead-ups to the Group 1 Blue Diamond played out over the weekend. In this edition, we analyse the key 2YO races through TopRate to assess the quality of the performances and what they really mean moving forward.

Tempted made a strong statement on her return for the autumn, while a debutant from the Richard and Will Freedman stable gave the impression he has stakes-class potential.

🌟 Tempted 103.3 - made a big statement in her return, giving away weight relative to WFA and still outclassing them with ease. The most impressive part of her performance was the serious turn of foot she showed between the 400m and 200m mark, putting the race away quickly without being asked for a maximum effort. Her 103.3 rating sits right alongside her peak performances. It's similar to the 104 she produced first-up in the spring when winning the Run to the Rose, and the 103.6 she ran in the Everest. At this stage, there is no doubt she is the premier three-year-old filly in the country. There is a clear gap between her and the rest. The real test is more likely to come against the open-class sprinters later in this preparation.

💪 Tom Kitten 102.5 - returned in outstanding style with his win in the G3 WFA Kevin Heffernan Stakes, narrowly defeating Feroce, who was also excellent at 102.1. The margin does not initially suggest this level of performance, but the clock does. Sandpaper ensured a good tempo in front, and Tom Kitten closed with increasingly fast sectionals from the 800m relative to standard, producing a powerful final 200m that was the best part of his race. With a fast overall time, strong sectionals, and a big margin back to Veight in third, this race has quality stamped all over it.

🙌 Light Infantry Man 98.5 - Scored a narrow win in the MRC Foundation Cup, but it had plenty of merit. He didn't have it easy from the wide draw, doing a mountain of work early on to press forward at a high speed just to find a spot outside the leader, Regal Zeus. After doing that early work, he spent the middle stages trailing a solid tempo, and there were plenty of moments in the straight where he looked like he might be swamped by the chasers. However, his stamina kicked in when it mattered, and he showed a lot of heart to keep giving under pressure. His 98.5 rating is in line with his best form from last spring, which ranged from 98 to 99.3. It's clearly his best rating off a break from his four previous efforts, which cover a period of more than three years.

🔎 Observer 98.0 - There was merit in the way he achieved his win, sitting outside the leader at a strong speed, especially being first-up. However, a 98 rating, while good, says we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves just yet. One important takeaway is that visually he appeared to race away from the field between the 400m and 200m, but his split for that section was actually 1.1 lengths below standard, so he wasn't necessarily finding a new gear. Rather, the leader Davida (-4.0L from 400m to 200m), and Top Conti (-3.1L) were hitting the wall much harder. Their rapid slowdown made Observer appear to be sprinting away, when he was, in reality, just slowing down less. This is not a negative for Observer. It highlights his stamina, showing only minor speed deterioration over the final 400m after sitting up on a strong speed. It does, however, add important context to the visual impression of the win. Observer won his Derby with a 98.5 rating and has resumed with a 98 over 1400m here. For comparison, Riff Rocket ran 101 in his Derby and returned with a 100.8 first-up win, while Hitotsu produced 103.5 in his Derby and 101.3 on return when winning the G1 Australian Guineas over 1600m.
Observer is yet to break the 100 rating barrier, but this was a strong first-up win that provides the right platform to build toward that level as the preparation progresses.

📈 Alpha Sofie 97.7 - Extended her winning streak to four with an impressive first-up win in the Group 3 Peter Le Grand Stakes over 1100m at Caulfield. Her 97.7 rating was another new peak, up from a 96.5 win over 1200m at MV to close last prep, which followed a 92 rating victory at Eagle Farm. She's only had five career starts and is still on an upward trajectory.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

Journeyman, a three-year-old gelding from the Richard and Will Freedman stable, made a big impression at Warwick Farm on debut, coming from a long way back in running to win by a dominant 2.8 lengths with a 📊 93 WFA Performance Rating.

At the 800m, he was 7.5 lengths off the lead but showed terrific sustained sectional speed, building relative to standard through every split. His final 200m was his best, rated +3.5 lengths above the TopRate standard, and he recorded the best speed ratings of the meeting for the last 800m, 600m, 400m, and 200m.

While a 93 rating is already impressive for a maiden, he was still full of running over the final stages and is undoubtedly better than that number suggests.

By The Autumn Sun, there is every reason to expect improvement as he gains experience and steps up in distance. While he will not be able to afford settling so far back as he moves up in grade, his ability to sustain a long run points to a profile well-suited over further. He looks like a horse with genuine stakes-class potential, and it will be interesting to see how far he can go this preparation.

Check out a replay of his win HERE

In this video, I provide a post-race analysis of key two-year-old races from Sydney and Melbourne over the weekend using TopRate.

💎 Blue Diamond Preludes
• Colts & Geldings vs Fillies divisions
• Which runners have genuine claims heading toward the G1 Blue Diamond

📊 Sydney 2YO form
• One race with real merit and a winner who showed substance
• Another where I’m more sceptical about the form going forward

If you want a clear, sub 5-minute wrap of the 2YO form and what’s worth taking out of the weekend, this video covers it. Click on the image above or HERE to watch on YouTube.

This week’s Brain Teasers turn the spotlight on the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning, one of Australia’s premier sprint races. First run in 1955, its honour roll reads like a who’s who of elite Australian speed, showcasing generations of outstanding sprinters. Originally run as the Lightning Stakes, the race was renamed in 2013 in honour of the legendary mare Black Caviar.

*Answers at the bottom

➡ Royal Randwick | Group 2 APOLLO STAKES 1400M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 2 EXPRESSWAY STAKES 1200M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 ROBRICK LODGE TRISCAY STAKES 1200M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 2 TAB LIGHT FINGERS STAKES 1200M
➡ Flemington | Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning 1000M
➡ Flemington | Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes 1400M
➡ Flemington | Listed Desirable Stakes 1400M
➡ Flemington | Group 3 Frances Tressady Stakes 1400M
➡ Flemington | Listed TAB Talindert Stakes 1100M
➡ Flemington | Listed The Elms Handicap 1400M
➡ Pinjarra Park | Restricted Listed MAGIC MILLIONS WA 2YO CLASSIC 1200M
➡ Pinjarra Park | Restricted Listed MAGIC MILLIONS WA 3YO TROPHY 1200M

➡ Ascot | Listed CHALLENGE STAKES 1500M