A World-Class Talent Emerges

The carnival is building momentum, and last weekend may have revealed something special. Autumn Glow produced a performance that stamped her as a genuine world-class talent.

We break down that run in our Top Five Rated Winners and introduce a new feature, the Autumn Report Card, where we grade key contenders and with a view to how they’re tracking toward their major targets.

And don’t miss the data-driven insight on barrier draws in Caulfield sprint races. The numbers may challenge a few long-held assumptions.

🌏 Autumn Glow 106.3 - Made a stunning return to racing with her win in the Apollo Stakes at WFA. Settling just off a moderate early speed, she unleashed a sustained sprint over the final 800m, clocking fast, well-above-standard sectionals all the way to the finish. Her last 200m split +3.3 lengths above the TopRate standard was the best part of her final 600m and showed that she was still full of running. She improved on her previous best of 105 from her Golden Eagle win at the end of last preparation. That's significant given she was first-up and short of peak condition. It puts her on an upward trajectory that is impossible to put a ceiling on at this stage. She's undoubtedly a world-class racehorse, and all being well, it will be exciting to see the heights she can reach this preparation and beyond.

🎯 Joliestar 104.5 - Produced another brilliant first-up win, a trademark of her career. She ran a 104.5 rating in the Expressway Stakes, all but matching the 104.8 she ran to win The Shorts first-up in the spring. Five of her eight career wins have now come first-up. While she has not always been as explosive second-up and beyond, the sample is relatively small, and it is worth noting she ran 104.6 to win the G1 Newmarket Handicap second-up this time last year. With a suitable race setup, there is no obvious reason that she can't hold her form.

⚡️ Tentyris 104.0 - Was outstanding first-up, winning the G1 Lightning Stakes. He was 5.2 lengths off the lead at the 600m in a genuinely run race and produced a fast closing surge, building his speed through each sectional relative to standard. He reeled in My Gladiola at the 50m mark and was still full of running through the line with a 0.8 length winning margin that was widening with each stride. His final 200m of +3.7 lengths above standard was top class in the context of the overall race figures and shows that he had more to offer.

His 104 rating here does sit around one length below his 106.3 peak in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last spring, but that's no surprise given the 1000m is short of his best. The way he attacked the line suggests he is looking for further and a return to that 106+ level looks well within reach. Royal Ascot was suggested as a potential goal for him later this year, and there's every reason to put that firmly on the agenda after this performance.

💪 Berkeley Square 99.0 - Continues to thrive as a six-year-old, producing his second-highest career rating with a strong win over 2500m at Flemington. His 99 rating win sits within a length of his 100 rating Ballarat Cup victory three starts earlier. He is well and truly in career-best form.

🙌Hard Kick 98.5 - Was dominant winning the Talindert Stakes, emulating his sire All Too Hard, who won the same race in 2012. His 98.5 rating elevates him to the second-highest rated two-year-old this season on individual performances, just behind Warwoven at 98.8. He rolled along at a genuine speed on the lead, travelled better than anything else passing the 400m mark, and when asked to lift at the 300m, he extended his margin to win by 2.7 lengths. It was a performance of substance, both in terms of figures and the way he put it together.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

Each week in The Autumn Report Card, we assess and grade the performances of key runners as they build through their autumn campaigns. The grades go beyond the raw result, weighing each run against expectations for this stage of preparation, the suitability of the race setup and how the performance shapes their prospects for likely upcoming targets.

With the Blue Diamond this weekend and the Oakleigh Plate just around the corner, it’s a timely moment to look at how sprint races at Caulfield really play out. There’s a natural bias among punters to favour inside draws and treat wide gates as a negative, particularly in high-pressure 1000m to 1200m races. But over the past decade, the data paints a more nuanced picture. As the numbers below show, wide barriers have won just as often as inside draws, yet the market’s bias against them has delivered a significantly stronger betting return. In larger fields, the advantage tilts even further, with wider draws winning more often than those closest to the rail.

Why do the stats look this way? With a long run from sprint starts to just one turn at Caulfield, horses drawn wide generally cover minimal additional ground. More importantly, they are often able to build momentum and find clear running at the right time, whereas those drawn closer to the rail can be more vulnerable to traffic, particularly in larger fields.

💡 Key Takeaway: If you like a horse drawn wide in a Caulfield sprint, don’t treat the barrier as a red flag. Back your judgement. On average, its winning chance is no worse than if it had drawn inside, and the market’s natural bias typically means you’re getting better value.

Pembrey made an impressive debut for Tony Gollan, winning over 1000m at Eagle Farm by 5.4 lengths and posting a 📊 96.5 WFA Performance Rating. She came into the race off two trial wins by big margins and translated that straight to race day, putting the field away with authority.

What adds substance to the win is that despite leading and running slick overall time by two-year-old standards, she still produced a last 200m that rated +0.8 lengths above standard. That late strength with a good overall figure suggests stepping in distance should hold no concerns.

On this performance, it would be no surprise to see her tested in Sydney in a Golden Slipper lead-up race to see if she can measure up against higher-class opposition.

Check out a replay of her win HERE

*Answers at the bottom

➡ Launceston | Listed Kevin Sharkie Tasmanian Oaks 2100M
➡ Launceston | Listed Gold Sovereign Stakes 1200M

➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 2 HOBARTVILLE STAKES 1400M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 2 MILLIE FOX STAKES 1300M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 3 PARRAMATTA CUP 1900M
➡ Rosehill Gardens | Group 2 SILVER SLIPPER STAKES 1100M
➡ Morphettville | Listed Sportsbet Cinderella Stakes 1050M
➡ Morphettville | Listed Sportsbet City of Marion Stakes 1200M
➡ Morphettville | Group 3 Sportsbet Lord Reims Stakes 2600M
➡ Caulfield | Group 3 Catanach's Jewellers Mannerism Stakes 1400M
➡ Caulfield | Group 1 Henley Homes Futurity Stakes 1400M
➡ Caulfield | Group 2 Sportsbet Angus Armanasco Stakes 1400M
➡ Caulfield | Group 1 Sportsbet Blue Diamond Stakes 1200M
➡ Caulfield | Group 1 Sportsbet Oakleigh Plate 1100M
➡ Caulfield | Listed Sportsbet Victoria Gold Cup 2000M
➡ Caulfield | Group 3 Sportsbet Zeditave Stakes 1200M
➡ Caulfield | Group 2 Stow Storage Autumn Classic 1800M
➡ Ascot | Listed DETONATOR STAKES 1800M

➡ Pinjarra Scarpside | Listed PINJARRA CLASSIC 1300M