A New Prospect To Watch - And What Matters Now

As the autumn carnival winds down, Saturday’s racing still offered some useful reference points for what lies ahead, led by Concord Connie, whose performance suggests genuine Group 1 potential.

This week’s edition is more focused, highlighting what matters now - the performances worth following and the key angles shaping upcoming races, with a more targeted approach to delivering sharper insights across each section.

Saturday’s top winner ratings were headlined by Concord Connie, whose performance points to genuine Group 1 potential, with the rest solid but less significant going forward.

🌟 Concord Connie - 100
A highly impressive six-length winning performance that signals genuine Group 1 potential, stamped by fast time (+3.2L vs the TopRate standard) and, more notably, still finishing strongly at +2.3L above standard for her final 200m. She is bred to be better over longer trips, and producing this level of performance at just her third career start, over a distance likely short of her best, only reinforces that view. She’ll reportedly go around again in a 1400m 3YO race at Flemington before taking a break to be prepared for the spring. She’s one of the more exciting prospects to follow as we head into the new season.

🎯 Geegees Mistruth - 98.5
Won a very competitive Group 1 Sangster Stakes, improving on her previous best rating of 95.2 when beaten 2.7L in the G1 Newmarket three starts ago. Her 98.5 rating sits about 1.7 lengths below the historical winner average for this race, reinforced by a tight finish with four horses in the photo, the next three all within 2 lengths.

💪 Too Darn Discreet - 98.5
Improved on her previous best of 95.5 with a 98.5 rating win over 2000m at Flemington, sitting handy to a genuine pace and staying on strongly, still above average over her final 200m, with an overall time of +5.7L vs the TopRate standard. Although this was a BM100, a performance at this level shows that further stakes class success is within reach.

💎 Panova - 98
She looked to be struggling to find her best in this preparation, but a 2000m run in the G1 Vinery, followed by a jumpout eight days before this race, had her in peak condition for Chris Waller and James McDonald. She improved from a 90.3 best in her three runs prior to producing a 98 rating and winning the G1 Australasian Oaks. With the pace only even, there was merit in coming from 6.7L off the lead at the 600m, running the best last 600m of the meeting at +8.5L vs the TopRate standard. That performance sits within a length of her 99.3 peak in the Carbine Club Stakes last spring.

Historically, this race has rated well below Group 1 standard, but she was better than recent winners Benagil (95), Vibrant Sun (96.7) and Affaire A Suivre (96.5). Still lightly raced for a filly suited in the 1600m to 2000m range, she is in the right stable to continue developing as she matures. For me, she profiles similarly to a mare like Atishu, who went on to be a three-time Group 1 winner for the Waller stable.

🙌 Tycoon Star - 96.5
Beaten narrowly at his previous two starts after looking home inside the final 100m, he earned a deserved win here, running 96.5 to take the 3YO Group 2 Tobin Bronze Stakes, matching his last two runs at a similar level. His performance fits the recent history of the race: slightly below Reserve Bank last year (97.5), ahead of Skybird (95), and in line with Royal Merchant (96.5) over the two years prior.

💡 Key Takeaways
Concord Connie profiles as an exciting prospect for the future, while Panova’s return to form puts her back on track to develop into a genuine Group 1 competitor as she matures.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

A lot of punters underestimate how much pressure their selection strategy puts on them until they hit a losing run. Two approaches can deliver the same profit, but feel completely different to live through.

💡 How to apply it:
If the ups and downs of your approach feel hard to handle, look at your strike rate and the losing runs that come with it. A lower-strike-rate strategy can still be profitable, but only if you stay disciplined through the volatility.

For example, with a 20% strike rate, even with a +10% edge, you will encounter 100 bet cycles with only 12 to 14 winners and lose 25% to 35% on turnover. If you bet long enough, you will also hit runs worse than that.

At a 30% strike rate, the same 100-bet cycle returns 21 to 23 winners, with drawdowns closer to 15% to 23%.

Sometimes, a slightly lower edge with a higher strike rate is the more sustainable path.

The best approach isn’t just what makes money, it’s what you can execute consistently over time.

➡️ Accidental Bid is the favourite but remains first emergency for the SA Derby.
Competitively placed if he gets in, though the market has already priced in much of his upside potential.

➡️ Matias will spell after a trackwork injury and miss the QLD Derby.
Looked the rightful favourite, and his absence opens the race up.

➡️ Ka Ying Rising made it 20 straight wins and will target The Everest next.
He's improved since last year. A wet track or bad luck are the locals’ best hope.

➡️ Blind Raise is favourite for the G1 JJ Atkins after his Flemington win.
I have doubts. His 91 rating was just fair. He sat handy to a moderate speed and looked to be giving his all, but ran below standard in the final 200m.

➡️ Half Yours is set for a Hollindale – Doomben Cup – Q22 campaign.
Clearly the horse to beat across that series.

➡️ Tenenbaum heads toward the G1 JJ Atkins via Hawkesbury this Saturday.
A 93 rating first-up win makes that race a realistic target.

➡️ Antino has been retired due to a tendon injury.
His 2024 G1 Toorak win stands out as one of the more memorable Group 1 performances in modern times

➡️ Moscatel will target the Listed Woodlands Stakes after a strong debut win.
Her 92.7 rating will see her a leading chance stepping into stakes grade.

➡️ Jigsaw will spell after seven straight wins and target the spring.
Needs about 1 – 1.5 lengths improvement to match the top tier.

➡️ Chris Waller moved to 199 Group 1 wins with Panova.
The 200 milestone is imminent and will build as a key narrative in the coming weeks.

➡ Wagga | Listed WAGGA WAGGA GOLD CUP 2000m

➡ Hawkesbury | Group 3 HAWKESBURY GUINEAS 1400m 🔎
➡ Hawkesbury | Listed HAWKESBURY GOLD RUSH 1100m 🔎
➡ Hawkesbury | Group 3 HAWKESBURY CROWN 1300m 🔎
➡ Hawkesbury | Group 3 HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP 1600m 🔎
➡ Eagle Farm | Group 2 VICTORY STAKES 1200m
➡ Eagle Farm | Listed DALRELLO STAKES 1000m
➡ Eagle Farm | Group 2 QUEENSLAND GUINEAS 1600m
➡ Morphettville | Listed Adelaide Guineas 1600m
➡ Morphettville | Listed Port Adelaide Cup 2518m
➡ Morphettville | Group 1 South Australian Derby 2518m 🔎
➡ Bendigo | Listed Golden Mile 1600m 🔎
➡ Bendigo | Listed Bendigo Guineas 1400m 🔎
➡ Ascot | Group 3 W.A. SIRES' PRODUCE STAKES 1400m

🔎 = Full analysis available via the Betsmart service

*Answers at the bottom