A Defining Performance from Sir Delius

This week’s edition is headlined by Sir Delius’ world-class Queen Elizabeth Stakes performance, a rating that puts a highly suitable international target well within reach.

We also break down the top-rated winners from the weekend, take a closer look at Autumn Glow’s defeat and what it means going forward, and explore the importance of an improvement mindset in Racing & Betting IQ. As always, we round things out with key insights you may have missed, a look ahead to upcoming feature races, and this week’s Brain Teasers, focused on the Group 1 All Aged Stakes.

💪 Sir Delius - 107.8
Produced a monster performance in a brutally run 2000m where Light Infantry Man went +22.9 lengths above standard to the 800m, placing it at the upper end of Pride Of Jenni’s early pace range. Over the past two and a half years, across her 24 starts when leading, that +22.9 would rank fourth, just 1.6 lengths off her second fastest. Light Infantry Man was also 1 length quicker to the 800m than Pride Of Jenni in the 2024 edition of this race when she led by over 30 lengths and won by 6.5 lengths, highlighting how much others misjudged that tempo, although that sits in the past. Sir Delius absorbed that extreme pressure tracking around 3 lengths off the lead, and while all runners were below standard over the final 600m, he still rated just 1 length below standard for the final 200m, the best in the race, to produce his 107.8. That improved on his previous 106 peak in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last spring, which was run at a moderate early tempo before increasing sharply in the final 800m. There is no doubt he would relish stepping to 2400m, a trip he has yet to attempt in Australia, with the stamina he showed here the key to handling such extreme pressure at 2000m. With no G1 WFA option beyond 2040m here in the spring, I’d like to see him tackle the Hong Kong Vase over 2400m on the International Race Day in December, which is not typically a high-rating race on the global scale. A 107.8 would have comfortably won the past five editions.

⚡️ Tempted - 103.5
She has run right up to her best ratings of 104 and 103.6 to win the Group 2 Arrowfield Stakes. The race was run moderately through the first 400m for this class, built from the 800m to the 600m, and then was fast over the final 600m. While she didn’t blow them away, the strength of the race speed over the final 600m and the fact she came from 2.5 lengths off the lead to score by a clear 1.2 lengths highlights plenty of substance in the performance. Last week, Joliestar ran 103.7 to win the G1 WFA TJ Smith Stakes, which helps show how competitively Tempted sits against the current crop of top sprinters. While this era of sprinters is around 1.5 to 2.5 lengths below our historically elite standards, she can only compete against what is in front of her and is clearly right in that mix. Still a three-year-old with proven consistency above 103, there's nothing to say she can't find higher new peaks in the future.

💎 Idle Flyer - 102
Appreciated a strong speed set by Pride Of Jenni (+10.4 lengths above standard to the 800m and +12.7 lengths to the 600m) and elevated to a strong new peak of 102 to win the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes. That improves on her previous 100.5 peak by almost a length from her dominant G3 Angst Stakes win last spring, also over the Randwick Mile. Her 102 sits just a shade above the 101.8 ten-year average for the race.

🎯 Ohope Wins - 100
Won a high-pressure ATC Oaks run at a very fast speed (+17.6 lengths vs standard to the 800m), making it a genuine 2400m staying test. The four runners within 3 lengths of the lead at the 800m were beaten more than 15 lengths. Ohope Wins settled 10.5 lengths back at that point and could not have been better suited by the speed, with the energy she conserved compared to Profoundly, who was almost five lengths closer, telling over the final 100m. Her 100 rating is a clear improvement on her 96.5 NZ Oaks win, which came from a similar position well back in the field but under a far less favourable race shape. That performance did not show the full extent of her ability, whereas this race provided the ideal scenario to do so. She has shown plenty of stamina here, and doing so at the end of a long eight-run first preparation that began in November 2025 is a testament to her constitution, which should serve her well going forward. While her 100 rating sits below the best winners of the past decade, such as Bonneval (104.5) and Verry Elleegant (104), it compares well with more recent winners Treasurethe Moment (98), Autumn Angel (99) and Pennyweka (98.5).

🙌 Changingoftheguard - 99.5
Matched his previous best in Australia, winning the Group 1 Sydney Cup in a race that was run below average early and became more about a fast final 800m than a tough two-mile test. That lack of early speed suited those closer to the front, and with Changingoftheguard running +11.8 lengths above average for his final 800m, it highlights how difficult the race was for those chasing. He was superbly rated by Jason Collett in front and capitalised with a good quality final 800m without being brilliant, and combined with his favourable position on the lead, everything fell into place. With 55.5kg, his 99.5 rating converts to 102.7 at the weights, which is historically weak against a 107 ten-year average for the race at the weights carried and a 101.8 winner average normalised to weight-for-age.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

The biggest talking point out of Saturday’s racing was the defeat of Autumn Glow, bringing her eleven-race winning streak to an end. Despite being beaten, her performance at 2000m was certainly no failure.

Sir Delius produced a world-class 107.8 WFA Performance Rating to win, showing serious stamina in a high-pressure test. Autumn Glow came off a 107.5 win over 1500m in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes, and a 106 prior in a slowly run Verry Elleegant Stakes at 1600m, where she finished +6 lengths above standard over her final 200m.

In that context, her 104.1 rating on Saturday sits 2.3 lengths below her 107.5 peak and 1.2 lengths below her 106. However, it is important to note that this was an extremely high-pressure race through the early and middle stages, where she travelled more than eight lengths faster to the 600m than she had previously, much of that without cover back off the speed.

She travelled into the race like the winner halfway up the straight before peaking inside the final 200m.

Rather than exposing an inability to run 2000m, this performance defined the edge of her stamina in an extreme-pace scenario at that trip. In a more evenly run race, where the balance between stamina and turn of foot differs, I believe she still could run to something close to her 107.5 peak, particularly with further seasoning. Had that been the race shape on Saturday, the narrative may have been different, but it was not, and the 104.1 should be read as a slight dip within her elite profile rather than a failure.

She will almost certainly be managed going forward, with up to 1600m appearing her optimal trip, but I hope the opportunity comes in time to see her at 2000m again as a more mature mare. That aside, if she can continue to run around her 107.5 peak up to 1600m, it would be great to eventually see her tackle Group 1 mile races on the global stage. She is certainly good enough to win.

Each week in The Autumn Report Card, we assess and grade the performances of key runners as they build through their autumn campaigns. The grades go beyond the raw result, weighing each run against expectations for this stage of preparation, the suitability of the race setup and how the performance shapes their prospects to reach or improve on their past peak performances.

Racing & Betting IQ is a weekly series of practical tips, insights, and mental models drawn from experience. If you take your betting seriously, these principles can help sharpen how you think about and approach the game.

*Answers at the bottom

➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 ALL AGED STAKES 1400M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 1 MOET & CHANDON CHAMPAGNE STAKES 1600M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 FRANK PACKER PLATE 2000M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 HALL MARK STAKES 1200M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 JAMES H B CARR STAKES 1400M
➡ Royal Randwick | Group 3 JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION PLATE 2000M
➡ Eagle Farm | Listed ASCOT HANDICAP 1000M
➡ Eagle Farm | Listed DAYBREAK LOVER 1400M
➡ Morphettville Parks | Listed Sportsbet H C Nitschke Stakes 1400M
➡ Mornington | Listed Sportsbet Hareeba Stakes 1200M
➡ Mornington | Listed Sportsbet Mornington Cup 2400M
➡ Ascot | Group 2 LAWN PRIDE AUSTRALIA-KARRAKATTA PLATE 1200M