A Changing Balance in Australian Racing

In this week’s edition, we look at the key takeaway from the autumn carnival: the emergence of genuine depth in Australia’s weight-for-age ranks beyond the sprinting distances, signalling a shift in the balance of our elite talent.

We also examine Jigsaw’s seven-race winning streak and place it in historical context. In Racing & Betting IQ, we revisit the 35/65 rule and why it remains central to long-term punting success, along with our usual review of top-rated winners and key insights you may have missed.

👌 Beiwacht - 104
Was perfectly rated in front by Nash Rawiller to optimise his own performance and make it difficult for those chasing, running a 104 rating to win the G1 All Aged Stakes. After a below-average tempo to the 800m, Rawiller increased the speed from the 800m to 400m while still not going quickly, leaving plenty in reserve for the sprint up the home straight, which was the fastest part of the race relative to standard. His 104 is second only to his 108 rating 4L win in the G1 Group Golden Rose last spring, and sits comfortably above the race’s 103.3 ten-year average.

🧩 Jigsaw - 100
Made it seven wins in a row with another display of his strong, sustained speed to run a 100 rating and win the Quokka at Ascot. That matches the 100 rating Joker's Grin produced to win the race last year and sits 0.6 lengths below the 101.5 rating Overpass ran to win the first two runnings in 2023 and 2024. Jigsaw’s winning streak extends back to October 2025, with victories now in Victoria, New Zealand and Western Australia. He has led in every one of those seven wins and, in four of the last five, jumped from barriers 10 to 13, so he certainly hasn’t had it easy. Under the care of Cindy Alderson, his resurgence as a seven-year-old stands out as one of the best training performances we've seen in modern times.

🎯 Mazu - 98
Scored a well-deserved 98 rating win in the Group 3 Hall Mark Stakes at Randwick, the third year in succession he has now won the race. He is known as a wet tracker, with just one win from 21 starts on Good tracks, but those figures are misleading. While no doubt wet is best, he's proven more than capable on top of the ground. Three of his eight best career ratings have come on Good ground between 101.5 and 102.5. While those higher ratings appear behind him, his best in the last 20 starts have been 99.8 (Good 4) and 99 (Soft 5), with numerous other performances above 98 on both Good and Soft ground. Rachel King set a genuine tempo in front and then went early with a fast speed increase from the 800m, giving those chasing every chance to run him down, but he was still too good.

🙌 Asterix - 97.2
Resumed first-up over 2000m in the Group 3 JRA Plate at Randwick and, while reportedly in need of the run and never previously finishing closer than 3.8L first-up across four attempts (best rating 91.5), he ran a 97.2 rating win in good style. That sits just below his 98.3 career peak over 2400m at the end of last preparation in December. It's a promising return for the Chris Waller-trained New Zealand Derby winner from 2022 (97.5 rating). He can only improve in fitness from that run and, with a likely Queensland campaign ahead, looks a very good chance to hit a new peak this preparation.

🔥 Fireball - 97
Proved strongest late in a high-pressure 1600m Group 1 Champagne Stakes run at a fast early speed, winning narrowly over Campione D'Italia with a 97 rating. He has built through his autumn 2YO campaign nicely, opening with a 90.5 rating win over 1100m, later running 94.1 in the Group 1 Golden Slipper (1200m) and 94.4 when third in the Group 1 ATC Sires' Produce Stakes (1400m) after a tough trip, before improving to 97 here. That figure matches the rating Nepotism ran to win the race last year and sits just over a length below the ten-year average.

*Ratings are normalised to weight-for-age for each horse.

Jigsaw made it seven straight wins with victory in the Quokka at Ascot on Saturday, extending a run that now places him in rare historical company.

To put that into context, I went back through the TopRate database to assess just how uncommon a streak like this is, particularly one that includes Group 1 success.

His current run dates back to October 2025, with wins recorded across Victoria, New Zealand and Western Australia. The manner of those victories adds further merit to his sequence.

He has:

📊 Historical context

In the past 20 years, just 14 horses across Australia and New Zealand have recorded winning streaks of seven or more races that include at least one Group 1 victory:

⏳ Age and Longevity

Only two horses have taken a streak like this into their 7YO season:

• Winx
• Jigsaw

Black Caviar extended her run into her six-year-old season, while all others achieved their streaks at five years old or younger.

That places Jigsaw’s current run in even more exclusive territory.

👏 Putting It in Perspective

Jigsaw is obviously not in the same talent bracket as many of those names above, but a 7-win streak, including two G1s at this stage of his career, is historically significant.

Under the care of Cindy Alderson, his resurgence as a 7YO stands out as one of the more remarkable training performances we’ve seen in modern times.

The autumn carnival has come and gone for another year, and it lived up to expectations, delivering high-quality racing and plenty to look forward to.

One of the key takeaways is the emergence of a new wave of weight-for-age talent beyond the sprinting distances.

A New Era Beyond the Sprinting Distances

For several years, Australia’s non-sprinting weight-for-age ranks have been criticised for a lack of depth. This autumn, that narrative shifted.

Four horses produced genuine world-class performances across the mile, middle-distance and staying ranges:

Collectively, that level of performance represents a depth not seen in Australia for some time.

The strength does not end there. Lindermann reached a 104.5 peak at 2000m, while Caulfield and Melbourne Cup winner Half Yours (104.3 peak) is set to peak during the upcoming Queensland Carnival. Emerging three-year-old Autumn Boy, with a 102.4 peak, also looks like a horse capable of making an impact in open company through the spring.

A Changing Profile

Viewed together, these horses point to a significant shift.

The non-sprinting ranks now appear to be the strength of Australian racing, surpassing the sprinting division, which has traditionally been our global benchmark.

This autumn, the leading sprint performances were:

While solid, these figures sit below what we have typically seen from elite Australian sprinters, who have historically operated in the world-class 106 to 110 range, and occasionally higher.

The Takeaway

For many years, Australia’s sprinting ranks have defined its standing on the global stage.

This autumn suggests that balance may be shifting.

The depth and quality now emerging beyond 1600m points to a new area where our strongest talent may no longer be confined to sprinting but spread across the full spectrum of distances.

Racing & Betting IQ is a weekly series of practical tips, insights, and mental models drawn from experience. If you take your betting seriously, these principles can help sharpen how you think about and approach the game.

*Answers at the bottom

➡ Morphettville | Group 1 Sportsbet Australasian Oaks 2000M
➡ Morphettville | Group 1 Sportsbet Robert Sangster Stakes 1200M
➡ Morphettville | Group 2 Sportsbet Queen Of The South Stakes 1600M
➡ Morphettville | Group 2 Sportsbet Tobin Bronze Stakes 1200M
➡ Morphettville | Group 3 PFD Food Services Chairman's Stakes 2000M
➡ Morphettville | Group 3 Sportsbet Breeders' Stakes 1200M
➡ Morphettville | Group 3 Sportsbet John Hawkes Stakes 1100M
➡ Eagle Farm | Listed BRISBANE Handicap - LISTED - 1600M
➡ Eagle Farm | Listed CALAWAY GAL 1200M
➡ Eagle Farm | Listed MICK DITTMAN PLATE 1000M
➡ Eagle Farm | Listed PRINCESS STAKES 1600M
➡ Flemington | Listed ANZAC Day Stakes 1400M
➡ Flemington | Listed VRC St Leger 2800M
➡ Ascot | Listed SHEILA GWYNNE CLASSIC 1400M