2025 Melbourne Cup Preview

Racing’s greatest puzzle is here again — The 🏆 Melbourne Cup. We’ve been buried in the form since Saturday night, studying historical influences, ratings, sectionals, and replays, including every overseas runner to bring you our assessed prices, key insights, and betting strategy. Check it out below!

—Daniel O’Sullivan & The Inside Running Team

🔗For much more detail, including runner-by-runner ratings, key insights and detailed comments, check out our monster preview on Racing.com

🔑 KEY INSIGHTS - THE TOP TEN

24. Valliant King - $6.50
Top chance. Has the right ratings & lead-up form. I like him getting back to Flemington. He profiles well to run to a new peak in this race.

6. Presage Nocturne - $7.00
Top chance off the back of a good Caulfield Cup run, where he wasn’t expected to be at his best and didn’t have much luck at a key time. Set to peak here.

14. Half Yours - $8.50
Leading chance but no betting value. He’s in top form with an ideal rating profile and will love the wet, but doesn’t profile with the same upside as the top two.

21. River Of Stars - $8.50
A genuine chance at longshot odds. She drops 2kg off an underrated Caulfield Cup run that gives her the top last-start rating on weight-adjusted figures, and the rise to 3200m on wet ground could bring further improvement.

1. Al Riffa - $12.0
A top-class European stayer bringing the second-best lead-up rating in the field, but older internationals without a local run rarely elevate to win the Melbourne Cup. A key stat on this is contained in the more detailed preview on Racing.com

2. Buckaroo - $13.00
Brings the right type of run and rating off the Cox Plate, but doesn’t profile as well as others to improve to a new peak over 3200m.

17. Furthur - $26.00
A northern hemisphere three-year-old who looks short on ratings compared to others of his profile that have run well in the past, but this age and type have a strong record of coming here and improving their ratings.

15. More Felons - $26.00
His rating two starts ago is competitive, and while it’s isolated in his form, a genuine speed over 3200m is likely to suit. The draw is a negative.

4. Vauban - $31.00
Shows enough talent to be competitive on his best, and wet ground suits, but is inconsistent. Needs everything to go his way.

9. Absurde - $31.00
Comes off an okay run in the Caulfield Cup, but I question if he has the upside potential to challenge for the win.

💰BETTING STRATEGY

Win betting

• Valiant King – 1 unit win
• Presage Nocturne – 1 unit win
• River Of Stars – 0.5 units win

Exotics

• 1st – 24, 6, 14, 21
• 2nd – Those above and 1, 15, 17
• 3rd and 4th – Those above and 2, 4, 9, 8, 16, 23

Since 2016, we’ve been helping punters make smarter decisions through our Betsmart Racing service — offering race assessment, prices, comments and speed maps at an affordable $29 per month.

This week, we’ll be covering every race across the Flemington carnival - Melbourne Cup Day, Oaks Day and Champions Day still to come, delivering even more value than usual.

For more information, see betsmart.racing, where you can also get some free articles on:

🎯 Multi betting - what every punter should know

⚠️ Common form-analysis mistakes to avoid

💰 Rules to increase your betting profits