2025 Cox Plate Preview

The Cox Plate stands as Australia’s premier Weight-for-Age championship, a true test of class and brilliance, won by many of the best horses ever to grace the Australian turf. We’ve gone deep into the form for the 2025 edition and priced the race to 100% to show how each contender stacks up.

Best of luck over the weekend!

Cheers,
Daniel O’Sullivan & The Inside Running Team

🔑 Tactics will be key.
There’s a notable lack of speed in this year’s race, and the early positioning battle will be fascinating to watch. The key will be when and how the tempo builds, and which riders take the initiative to let their mounts build momentum naturally through their gears, rather than being forced to react suddenly to others increasing the tempo. That’s likely to play a major role in the outcome.

🎯 Grand Final Day for Via Sistina
After finishing third at her last two starts, there’s been some speculation about whether Via Sistina is going as well as she has in past preparations. For me, all the signs suggest she’s right on track, with the key being that she’s set to peak fourth up here for her grand final.

Third-up last prep, she ran a 104.3 rating before exploding fourth-up with that phenomenal, world-class 116 to win the 2024 Cox Plate by eight lengths. In the autumn, she again followed the same pattern, running 104.5 third-up to win the G1 Ranvet Stakes before peaking fourth-up with a 107.5 to claim the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

This preparation, she produced a 103.5 in the Turnbull Stakes, a minimal drop that’s easily explained by how the race was run and the sharp mid-race speed increase from the 800m. Her work from the 800m to 200m was outstanding, and her final 800m sectional was as strong as she’s ever gone. That sustained run simply saw her peak late, understandable given she wasn’t presented to be at her absolute peak.

We’re unlikely to see another 116, but with two 107.5 ratings since then, when at her top, she clearly profiles as the horse to beat. She is indeed at her most dominant in higher-pressure races, but her sectional talent is also elite, and equips her with more than enough talent to win in a slower pace scenario. The key is positioning and, more importantly, being presented to build her speed early enough.

💪Antino has the quality to challenge
Antino brings a 104.1 rating from his Turnbull Stakes run, where Blake Shinn rode a tactically superb race, making up cheap ground from the 1000m to 800m while still travelling comfortably, then taking the momentum initiative and forcing others to react. He also owns a 106.5 rating from his Doomben Cup win back in May, a very fast-run race that showcased his top-end ability. That level of talent can give Via Sistina plenty to overcome here - he’s the clear danger.

The Hawkes-trained 3YO colt isn’t exactly a hype horse, but there’s plenty of talk around social media that he could be one to cause an upset in the Cox Plate with just 49.5 kg. Let’s see what the data says in TopRate.

✅ The appeal
He gets the perceived 3YO weight advantage with just 49.5kg, which always draws attention. In recent years, we’ve seen the likes of Savabeel (2004), So You Think (2009), and Shamus Award (2013) win under the same scenario, while Yankee Rose, Castelvecchio, Anamoe, and Broadsiding have filled placings. But being three and carrying 49.5kg doesn’t automatically make you good enough to feature in a Cox Plate. The data says Nepotism would need to elevate well beyond anything he’s shown so far to be competitive.

📊 What the WFA Performance Ratings say
Based on this year’s lead-up form and peak ratings of key chances, particularly Via Sistina and Antino, a rating of at least 104 and likely 105 to 107.5 will be needed to win.

Nepotism’s ratings this prep of 93.1, 89.3, 93.3 (weight-adjusted to 49.5 kg) fall well short of that mark (about 7 lengths.)

He hasn’t been finishing off his races strongly either, never ranking fastest over the final 600m, 400m, or 200m in his three runs this prep, which have all been against his own age group.

His career peak rating remains 99.2, achieved as a 2YO.

🏇 Cox Plate Historical context
In the past decade, only 16 horses have started in the Cox Plate off a last-start rating less than or equal to 98. Here is some further data on those 16 horses:

Every Cox Plate placegetter in the last 10 starts has bought a last start rating above 98, and those in the 98–99.9 range had already posted previous 100+ ratings.

Nepotism brings a 93.3 from his last start and has been no better in two previous runs this preparation.

👨‍⚖ Hype Check Verdict: 👎 Not this year
Nepotism will need to run at least 100+ to place in this year’s Cox Plate, around 4.5 lengths better than his recent form. To win, he’d need to improve more than seven lengths on what he’s shown this prep and about four lengths beyond his career best.

That’s a huge mountain to climb. Of course, if you’ve watched enough racing, you know nothing is ever impossible. With a smaller field and a likely more forward position in running, he could find improvement.

Still, there’s nothing in his exposed form, particularly this preparation, that suggests he’s up to Cox Plate standard. If he runs top three, it would be an all-time testament to Team Hawkes’ belief in their horse over what the form actually says.